Who is favourite for Monza vs SSC Napoli?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is SSC Napoli win at 60%. Home 19%, draw 22%, away 60%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Monza vs SSC Napoli?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Monza vs SSC Napoli go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Monza vs SSC Napoli?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

Monza vs SSC Napoli prediction

Clear lean

SSC Napoli win 60%

Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · U-Power Stadium

Published 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

MonzavsSSC Napoli

Clear lean

SSC Napoli win60%

Monza win: 19%
Draw: 22%
SSC Napoli win: 60%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.03–1.99
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over81%; Under19%
2.5 goals: Over58%; Under42%
3.5 goals: Over36%; Under64%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: SSC Napoli win 60%, from a -282 Elo gap (1380 vs 1662).
2Expected goals 1.03-1.99.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
4Jan Ziółkowski listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1380
-282
1662
Serie A table
Out: Monza2 out
Jan Ziółkowski
Solomon Loubao
SSC Napoli3 out
Alessandro Buongiorno
Costantino Favasuli
David Neres
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Monza
WLWLD
Avg xG 1.90-1.50
SSC Napoli
LWDWL
Avg xG 2.10-1.46

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.2%
212Prediction10.0%
3029.7%
4019.5%
5136.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Monza versus SSC Napoli
Monza goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	5%	10%	10%	6%	3%
1	5%	10%	10%	7%	3%
2	3%	5%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Monza win

Fair

5.34

19% model

Listed

4.00

24% book

Draw

Fair

4.60

22% model

Listed

3.84

25% book

SSC Napoli win

Disagrees

Fair

1.68

60% model

Listed

1.95

50% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed SSC Napoli win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.72
Listed: 1.75

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.38
Listed: 2.14

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.60

BTTS no

Fair: 2.25
Listed: 2.19

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Monza2 out · 1 doubtful

Jan ZiółkowskiOutFoot Injury
Solomon LoubaoOutUnknown
Yvan MayeDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

SSC Napoli3 out

Alessandro BuongiornoOutMeniscus Injury
Costantino FavasuliOutThigh Injury
David NeresOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Monza

SSC Napoli

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Monza

WLWLD

40CagliariHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 2.06–2.37
13LazioAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.76–1.84
21SassuoloHome · 18 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–1.47
23LecceAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.07
11ParmaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.72–0.73

SSC Napoli

LWDWL

01VeneziaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 2.36–0.98
30FrosinoneHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 3.12–1.01
11FiorentinaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–1.14
10BolognaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.19–0.29
23InterAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.43–3.86

How to read the Monza vs SSC Napoli probabilities

Monza vs SSC Napoli (Serie A, 28 Oct 2026): Clear lean. SSC Napoli win 60%. Expected goals are 1.03–1.99. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

SSC Napoli is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.03–1.99). SSC Napoli win is 60%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · SSC Napoli win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Monza vs SSC Napoli

Who is favourite for Monza vs SSC Napoli?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is SSC Napoli win at 60%. Home 19%, draw 22%, away 60%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Monza vs SSC Napoli?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Monza vs SSC Napoli go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Monza vs SSC Napoli?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.