Who is favourite for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sassuolo win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 26%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Frosinone vs Sassuolo go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction

Balanced

Sassuolo win 37%

Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Stadio Benito Stirpe

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 2/4 checks hit

Frosinone

4–2

Frosinone won

Sassuolo

1X2

Sassuolo win

37%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Sassuolo win · 37%

Actual Frosinone won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 4–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 6 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FrosinonevsSassuolo

Balanced

Sassuolo win37%

Frosinone win: 37%
Draw: 26%
Sassuolo win: 37%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.43–1.43
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals6 scored · Hit: Over79%; Under21%
2.5 goals6 scored · Hit: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals6 scored · Miss: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Sassuolo win 37%, from a -61 Elo gap (1422 vs 1483).
2Expected goals 1.43-1.43.
3Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Florian Grillitsch listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1422
-61
1483
Serie A table
Out: Frosinone1 out
Florian Grillitsch
Sassuolo5 out
Daniel Boloca
Fedde Leysen
Ismael Koné
+2 more
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Frosinone
LWDWW
Avg xG 1.63-2.28
Sassuolo
DLWDW
Avg xG 1.43-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.4%
2128.4%
3218.3%
4017.5%
5107.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Frosinone versus Sassuolo
Frosinone goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	8%	6%	3%
1	7%	12%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4			1%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Frosinone win

Fair

2.73

37% model

Listed

2.60

38% book

Closing 2.50

Draw

Fair

3.79

26% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Closing 3.75

Sassuolo win

Fair

2.70

37% model

Listed

2.80

35% book

Closing 2.81

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 34 hours before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 2.50 · D 3.75 · A 2.81 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.84
Listed: 1.52

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.76

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.71
Listed: 1.40

BTTS no

Fair: 2.41
Listed: 2.80

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Frosinone1 out

Florian GrillitschOutGroin Injury

Sassuolo5 out

Daniel BolocaOutKnee Injury
Fedde LeysenOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Ismael KonéOutBroken Ankle
Jay IdzesOutThigh Injury
Yeferson PazOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Frosinone

Sassuolo

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Frosinone

4-2-3-1

Sassuolo

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Frosinone

LWDWW

03SSC NapoliAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.01–3.12
20ComoHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.18–2.12
11GenoaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.93–1.88
32VeneziaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.90–2.17
30FiorentinaAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.11–2.13

Sassuolo

DLWDW

11AC MilanHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.19–1.18
12MonzaAway · 18 Sept 2026
xG 1.47–1.51
32JuventusHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.10
22BolognaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.62–1.88
21TorinoHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.85–1.26

How to read the Frosinone vs Sassuolo probabilities

Frosinone vs Sassuolo (Serie A, 16 Oct 2026): Balanced. Sassuolo win 37%. Expected goals are 1.43–1.43. Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–2.

Frosinone and Sassuolo are close on expected goals (1.43–1.43), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Sassuolo win
Kick-off: Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Frosinone vs Sassuolo

Who is favourite for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Sassuolo win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 26%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Frosinone vs Sassuolo?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Frosinone vs Sassuolo go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Frosinone vs Sassuolo?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.