Who is favourite for AC Milan vs Bologna?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AC Milan win at 60%. Home 60%, draw 23%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AC Milan vs Bologna?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will AC Milan vs Bologna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AC Milan vs Bologna?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

AC Milan vs Bologna prediction

Clear lean

AC Milan win 60%

Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

AC MilanvsBologna

Clear lean

AC Milan win60%

AC Milan win: 60%
Draw: 23%
Bologna win: 17%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.88–0.90
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over53%; Under47%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: AC Milan win 60%, from a +99 Elo gap (1651 vs 1552).
2Expected goals 1.88-0.90.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%.
4Alexis Saelemaekers listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1651
+99
1552
Serie A table
Out: AC Milan2 out
Alexis Saelemaekers
Matteo Gabbia
Bologna3 out
Emil Holm
Riccardo Orsolini
Roberto Piccoli
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: AC Milan
WDWDD
Avg xG 1.46-1.35
Bologna
LWDLD
Avg xG 1.21-1.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Modal11.4%
22010.9%
31110.8%
421Prediction9.9%
5306.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for AC Milan versus Bologna
AC Milan goals	0	1	2
0	6%	5%	3%
1	11%	11%	5%
2	11%	10%	4%
3	7%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

AC Milan win

Fair

1.67

60% model

Listed

1.65

59% book

Draw

Fair

4.43

23% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Bologna win

Fair

5.73

17% model

Listed

5.75

17% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.90
Listed: 1.83

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.11
Listed: 2.03

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.80

BTTS no

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.92

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AC Milan2 out · 2 doubtful

Alexis SaelemaekersOutAnkle Injury
Matteo GabbiaOutTendon Injury
Gonçalo RamosDoubtfulCalf Injury
Samuel ChukwuezeDoubtfulThigh Injury

Bologna3 out

Emil HolmOutHamstring Injury
Riccardo OrsoliniOutThigh Injury
Roberto PiccoliOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

AC Milan

Bologna

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AC Milan

WDWDD

32AtalantaHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.58–1.74
11SassuoloAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.18–1.19
30LecceHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.19–0.21
22LazioAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.25–2.01
11JuventusAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.11–1.59

Bologna

LWDLD

13InterHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.00–3.16
21LecceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.98–1.49
11TorinoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.14
01SSC NapoliAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.29–1.19
22SassuoloHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.62

How to read the AC Milan vs Bologna probabilities

AC Milan vs Bologna (Serie A, 28 Oct 2026): Clear lean. AC Milan win 60%. Expected goals are 1.88–0.90. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AC Milan is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.88–0.90). AC Milan win is 60%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · AC Milan win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AC Milan vs Bologna

Who is favourite for AC Milan vs Bologna?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AC Milan win at 60%. Home 60%, draw 23%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AC Milan vs Bologna?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will AC Milan vs Bologna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AC Milan vs Bologna?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.