Who is favourite for Genoa vs Venezia?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Venezia win at 42%. Home 31%, draw 27%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Genoa vs Venezia?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Genoa vs Venezia go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Genoa vs Venezia?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 8 · 2026/27

Genoa vs Venezia prediction

Slight lean

Venezia win 42%

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon · Luigi Ferraris

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

GenoavsVenezia

Slight lean

Venezia win42%

Genoa win: 31%
Draw: 27%
Venezia win: 42%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.21–1.45
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over75%; Under25%
2.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%
3.5 goals: Over28%; Under72%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Venezia win 42%, from a +85 Elo gap (1459 vs 1374).
2Expected goals 1.21-1.45.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Djibril Sow listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1459
+85
1374
Serie A table
Out: Genoa4 out
Djibril Sow
Elias Havel
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
+1 more
Venezia4 out
Andrea Adorante
Bartol Franjić
Gianluca Busio
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Genoa
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.06-1.28
Venezia
WLLLL
Avg xG 1.61-2.28

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.0%
2019.4%
312Prediction8.9%
4007.7%
5107.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Genoa versus Venezia
Genoa goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	9%	7%	4%
1	8%	13%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Genoa win

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

2.10

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.66

27% model

Listed

3.50

28% book

Venezia win

Disagrees

Fair

2.38

42% model

Listed

3.93

25% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Venezia win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 1.93

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.93

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.84
Listed: 1.73

BTTS no

Fair: 2.19
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Genoa4 out

Djibril SowOutThigh Injury
Elias HavelOutAnkle Injury
Franz-Ethan MeichtryOutMuscle Injury
Lorenzo ColomboOutAnkle Injury

Venezia4 out · 1 doubtful

Andrea AdoranteOutBack Injury
Bartol FranjićOutShoulder Injury
Gianluca BusioOutThigh Injury
Thierry CorreiaOutMuscle Injury
Armel Bella-KotchapDoubtfulMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Genoa

Venezia

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Genoa

LWLDL

02AS RomaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.47–1.33
21FiorentinaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.46–0.82
12ParmaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.70–0.53
11FrosinoneHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.93
14ComoHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.78–1.78

Venezia

WLLLL

10SSC NapoliHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.98–2.36
13AtalantaAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.48–2.19
02LazioHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–1.64
24FiorentinaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.49–3.31
23FrosinoneAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.17–1.90

How to read the Genoa vs Venezia probabilities

Genoa vs Venezia (Serie A, 25 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Venezia win 42%. Expected goals are 1.21–1.45. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Genoa and Venezia are close on expected goals (1.21–1.45), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Venezia win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Genoa vs Venezia

Who is favourite for Genoa vs Venezia?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Venezia win at 42%. Home 31%, draw 27%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Genoa vs Venezia?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Genoa vs Venezia go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Genoa vs Venezia?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.