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Serie A · Round 8 · 2026/27

Como vs Sassuolo prediction

Clear lean

Como win 67%

· Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

ComovsSassuolo
Clear lean

Como win67%

Open game
Como win
67%
Draw
19%
Sassuolo win
14%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 2–0 at 10%

Expected goals
2.34–0.98

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
65%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over85%
Under15%
2.5 goals
Over65%
Under35%
3.5 goals
Over42%
Under58%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Como win 67%, from a +132 Elo gap (1607 vs 1475).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.34-0.98.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 65%.
  5. 5Assane Diao listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1607

+132

1475

Serie A table
Out

Como2 out

  • Assane Diao
  • Moise Kean

Sassuolo5 out

  • Daniel Boloca
  • Fedde Leysen
  • Ismael Koné
  • +2 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Como

WDLWW

Avg xG 2.00-1.49

Sassuolo

LDLWD

Avg xG 1.46-1.64

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.9%
  2. 221Prediction9.7%
  3. 3118.6%
  4. 4108.2%
  5. 5307.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Como versus Sassuolo
Como goals012345
04%3%
18%9%4%
210%10%5%
38%8%4%
44%4%2%
52%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Como win

Como win: model 67%, fair 1.48, listed 1.42 (67%)

Fair

1.48

67% model

Listed

1.42

67% book

Draw

Draw: model 19%, fair 5.38, listed 4.80 (20%)

Fair

5.38

19% model

Listed

4.80

20% book

Sassuolo win

Sassuolo win: model 14%, fair 7.12, listed 7.00 (14%)

Fair

7.12

14% model

Listed

7.00

14% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 65%, fair 1.55, listed 1.50 (64%)

Fair
1.55
Listed
1.50

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 35%, fair 2.82, listed 2.72 (36%)

Fair
2.82
Listed
2.72

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.64 (57%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.64

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.17 (43%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.17

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Como2 out

  • Assane DiaoOutThigh Injury
  • Moise KeanOutMuscle Injury

Sassuolo5 out

  • Daniel BolocaOutKnee Injury
  • Fedde LeysenOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Ismael KonéOutBroken Ankle
  • Jay IdzesOutThigh Injury
  • Yeferson PazOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Como

  1. 1 Jean Butez · G
  2. 3 Álex Valle · D
  3. 4 Jacobo Ramón · D
  4. 27 Yan Couto · D
  5. 99 Trevoh Chalobah · D
  6. 5 Máximo Perrone · M
  7. 7 Lucas Da Cunha · M
  8. 10 Nico Paz · M
  9. 11 Assane Diao · M
  10. 20 Martin Baturina · M
  11. 9 Anastasios Douvikas · F

Sassuolo

  1. 49 Arijanet Murić · G
  2. 3 Josh Doig · D
  3. 16 Fedde Leysen · D
  4. 21 Jay Idzes · D
  5. 10 Domenico Berardi · M
  6. 18 Nemanja Matić · M
  7. 42 Kristian Thorstvedt · M
  8. 45 Armand Laurienté · M
  9. 46 Simone Cinquegrano · M
  10. 50 Darryl Bakola · M
  11. 94 Sebastiano Esposito · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Como

WDLWW
  • 31FiorentinaAway · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 1.77–2.25

  • 00AS RomaHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.35–1.08

  • 02FrosinoneAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.12–2.18

  • 21ParmaHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 2.98–1.15

  • 41GenoaAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 1.78–0.78

Sassuolo

LDLWD
  • 24FrosinoneAway · 16 Oct 2026

    xG 2.02–2.55

  • 11AC MilanHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.19–1.18

  • 12MonzaAway · 18 Sept 2026

    xG 1.47–1.51

  • 32JuventusHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.02–1.10

  • 22BolognaAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.62–1.88

How to read the Como vs Sassuolo probabilities

Como vs Sassuolo (Serie A, 24 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Como win 67%. Expected goals are 2.34–0.98. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Como is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.34–0.98). Como win is 67%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 65%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Como win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Como vs Sassuolo

Who is favourite for Como vs Sassuolo?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Como win at 67%. Home 67%, draw 19%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Como vs Sassuolo?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Como vs Sassuolo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 65% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Como vs Sassuolo?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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