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Serie A · Round 8 · 2026/27

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma prediction

Balanced

AS Roma win 39%

· Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

SSC NapolivsAS Roma
Balanced

AS Roma win39%

SSC Napoli win
35%
Draw
26%
AS Roma win
39%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 12%

Expected goals
1.33–1.41

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over76%
Under24%
2.5 goals
Over52%
Under48%
3.5 goals
Over30%
Under70%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: AS Roma win 39%, from a -14 Elo gap (1662 vs 1676).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.33-1.41.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Alessandro Buongiorno listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1662

-14

1676

Serie A table
Out

SSC Napoli4 out

  • Alessandro Buongiorno
  • Antonio Vergara
  • Costantino Favasuli
  • +1 more

AS Roma3 out

  • Bryan Cristante
  • Manu Koné
  • Mile Svilar
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

SSC Napoli

LWDWL

Avg xG 2.10-1.46

AS Roma

WDDWW

Avg xG 1.78-1.25

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction12.5%
  2. 2018.7%
  3. 3128.5%
  4. 4108.2%
  5. 5218.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for SSC Napoli versus AS Roma
SSC Napoli goals012345
07%9%6%3%
18%12%9%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

SSC Napoli win

SSC Napoli win: model 35%, fair 2.85, listed 3.10 (31%)

Fair

2.85

35% model

Listed

3.10

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.80, listed 3.49 (28%)

Fair

3.80

26% model

Listed

3.49

28% book

AS Roma win

AS Roma win: model 39%, fair 2.59, listed 2.38 (41%)

Fair

2.59

39% model

Listed

2.38

41% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.93, listed 1.90 (51%)

Fair
1.93
Listed
1.90

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
1.95

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 1.66 (56%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
1.66

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.28, listed 2.11 (44%)

Fair
2.28
Listed
2.11

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

SSC Napoli4 out

  • Alessandro BuongiornoOutMeniscus Injury
  • Antonio VergaraOutCalf Injury
  • Costantino FavasuliOutThigh Injury
  • David NeresOutThigh Injury

AS Roma3 out

  • Bryan CristanteOutKnee Injury
  • Manu KonéOutThigh Injury
  • Mile SvilarOutBroken Finger

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

SSC Napoli

  1. 1 Alex Meret · G
  2. 13 Amir Rrahmani · D
  3. 16 Rafa Marín · D
  4. 11 Kevin De Bruyne · M
  5. 22 Giovanni Di Lorenzo · M
  6. 37 Leonardo Spinazzola · M
  7. 68 Stanislav Lobotka · M
  8. 99 Frank Anguissa · M
  9. 8 Scott McTominay · F
  10. 19 Rasmus Højlund · F
  11. 21 Matteo Politano · F

AS Roma

  1. 99 Mile Svilar · G
  2. 5 Evan Ndicka · D
  3. 22 Mario Hermoso · D
  4. 23 Gianluca Mancini · D
  5. 43 Wesley · D
  6. 4 Bryan Cristante · M
  7. 17 Manu Koné · M
  8. 77 Emanuele Lulli · M
  9. 14 Donyell Malen · F
  10. 18 Matías Soulé · F
  11. 21 Paulo Dybala · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

SSC Napoli

LWDWL
  • 01VeneziaAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 2.36–0.98

  • 30FrosinoneHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 3.12–1.01

  • 11FiorentinaAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.40–1.14

  • 10BolognaHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.19–0.29

  • 23InterAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.43–3.86

AS Roma

WDDWW
  • 20GenoaHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.33–0.47

  • 00ComoAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.08–1.35

  • 22InterHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.66–2.86

  • 20TorinoAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.85–0.86

  • 21AtalantaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.97–0.70

How to read the SSC Napoli vs AS Roma probabilities

SSC Napoli vs AS Roma (Serie A, 24 Oct 2026): Balanced. AS Roma win 39%. Expected goals are 1.33–1.41. Prediction 1–1 (12%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

SSC Napoli and AS Roma are close on expected goals (1.33–1.41), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · AS Roma win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 17:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about SSC Napoli vs AS Roma

Who is favourite for SSC Napoli vs AS Roma?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 39%. Home 35%, draw 26%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for SSC Napoli vs AS Roma?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will SSC Napoli vs AS Roma go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in SSC Napoli vs AS Roma?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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