Who is favourite for Parma vs Torino?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Torino win at 40%. Home 30%, draw 30%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Parma vs Torino?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Parma vs Torino go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Parma vs Torino?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

Parma vs Torino prediction

Slight lean

Torino win 40%

Mon 19 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Ennio Tardini

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

ParmavsTorino

Slight lean

Torino win40%

Parma win: 30%
Draw: 30%
Torino win: 40%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 0.99–1.18
Over 2.5: 37%
BTTS: 44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over64%; Under36%
2.5 goals: Over37%; Under63%
3.5 goals: Over18%; Under82%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Torino win 40%, from a -47 Elo gap (1451 vs 1498).
2Expected goals 0.99-1.18.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Hans Nicolussi Caviglia listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1451
-47
1498
Serie A table
Out: Parma3 out
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Nesta Elphege
Pontus Almqvist
Torino1 out
Niccolò Fortini
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Parma
LWLDL
Avg xG 0.62-1.88
Torino
WDLWL
Avg xG 1.29-1.41

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.8%
20113.0%
30011.8%
41010.8%
5028.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Parma versus Torino
Parma goals	0	1	2	3
0	12%	13%	8%	3%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%
2	6%	7%	4%
3		2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Parma win

Fair

3.32

30% model

Listed

3.33

29% book

Draw

Fair

3.33

30% model

Listed

3.10

31% book

Torino win

Fair

2.51

40% model

Listed

2.42

40% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 27 hours before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.70
Listed: 2.41

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.59
Listed: 1.61

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.27
Listed: 1.98

BTTS no

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.76

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Parma3 out · 1 doubtful

Hans Nicolussi CavigliaOutHernia
Nesta ElphegeOutAppendicitis
Pontus AlmqvistOutCalf Injury
Abdoulaye NdiayeDoubtfulKnock Injury

Torino1 out · 1 doubtful

Niccolò FortiniOutMuscle Injury
Emirhan İlkhanDoubtfulMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Parma

Torino

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Parma

LWLDL

03InterAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.46–2.42
21GenoaHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.53–0.70
12ComoAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.15–2.98
11MonzaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.73–1.72
02JuventusAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.25–1.58

Torino

WDLWL

21UdineseHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.62–0.76
11BolognaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.14–0.92
02AS RomaHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.86–1.85
21FiorentinaAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.58–1.67
12SassuoloAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.26–1.85

How to read the Parma vs Torino probabilities

Parma vs Torino (Serie A, 19 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Torino win 40%. Expected goals are 0.99–1.18. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Parma and Torino are close on expected goals (0.99–1.18), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 37%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Torino win
Kick-off: Mon 19 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Parma vs Torino

Who is favourite for Parma vs Torino?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Torino win at 40%. Home 30%, draw 30%, away 40%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Parma vs Torino?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Parma vs Torino go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Parma vs Torino?: BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.