Who is favourite for Bologna vs Inter?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Inter win at 61%. Home 16%, draw 23%, away 61%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bologna vs Inter?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Bologna vs Inter go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bologna vs Inter?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

Bologna vs Inter prediction

Clear lean

Inter win 61%

Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 Lisbon · Renato Dall'Ara

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 2/4 checks hit

Bologna

1–3

Inter won

Inter

1X2

Inter win

61%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Inter win · 61%

Actual Inter won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

BolognavsInter

Clear lean

Inter win61%

Bologna win: 16%
Draw: 23%
Inter win: 61%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.84–1.86
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals4 scored · Hit: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals4 scored · Hit: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals4 scored · Miss: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Inter win 61%, from a -216 Elo gap (1557 vs 1773).
2Expected goals 0.84-1.86.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
4Emil Holm listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1557
-216
1773
Serie A table
Out: Bologna2 out
Emil Holm
Riccardo Orsolini
Inter4 out
Benjamin Pavard
Curtis Jones
John Stones
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/3-5-2
Last 5: Bologna
WDLDL
Avg xG 1.22-1.12
Inter
WDWWW
Avg xG 3.17-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal11.9%
20211.6%
31111.1%
412Prediction9.8%
5007.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Bologna versus Inter
Bologna goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	7%	12%	12%	7%	3%
1	5%	11%	10%	6%	3%
2	2%	4%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Bologna win

Fair

6.30

16% model

Listed

5.72

17% book

Closing 6.12

Draw

Fair

4.28

23% model

Listed

4.25

23% book

Closing 4.20

Inter win

Fair

1.65

61% model

Listed

1.64

60% book

Closing 1.58

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 6.12 · D 4.20 · A 1.58 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.68

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 2.27

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 1.95
Listed: 2.12

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Bologna2 out

Emil HolmOutHamstring Injury
Riccardo OrsoliniOutThigh Injury

Inter4 out

Benjamin PavardOutThigh Injury
Curtis JonesOutMuscle Injury
John StonesOutThigh Injury
Lautaro MartínezOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Bologna

Inter

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Bologna

3-4-2-1

Inter

3-5-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bologna

WDLDL

21LecceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.98–1.49
11TorinoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.14
01SSC NapoliAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.29–1.19
22SassuoloHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.62
01AtalantaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.05–0.15

Inter

WDWWW

30ParmaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.42–0.46
22AS RomaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.86–1.66
53UdineseHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 3.05–0.92
32SSC NapoliHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.86–2.43
10CagliariAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 3.67–0.48

How to read the Bologna vs Inter probabilities

Bologna vs Inter (Serie A, 17 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Inter win 61%. Expected goals are 0.84–1.86. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–3.

Inter is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.84–1.86). Inter win is 61%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Inter win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 17:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Bologna vs Inter

Who is favourite for Bologna vs Inter?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Inter win at 61%. Home 16%, draw 23%, away 61%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bologna vs Inter?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Bologna vs Inter go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bologna vs Inter?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.