Who is favourite for Parma vs Udinese?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Parma win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 27%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Parma vs Udinese?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Parma vs Udinese go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Parma vs Udinese?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

Parma vs Udinese prediction

Slight lean

Parma win 41%

Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon · Ennio Tardini

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

ParmavsUdinese

Slight lean

Parma win41%

Parma win: 41%
Draw: 27%
Udinese win: 32%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.36–1.18
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over72%; Under28%
2.5 goals: Over47%; Under53%
3.5 goals: Over25%; Under75%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Parma win 41%, from a -24 Elo gap (1442 vs 1466).
2Expected goals 1.36-1.18.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Hans Nicolussi Caviglia listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1442
-24
1466
Serie A table
Out: Parma3 out
Hans Nicolussi Caviglia
Nesta Elphege
Pontus Almqvist
Udinese4 out
David Alaba
Idrissa Gueye
Nicolò Zaniolo
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Parma
LLWLD
Avg xG 0.89-1.88
Udinese
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.04-2.40

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.9%
21010.5%
3019.0%
421Prediction8.6%
5008.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Parma versus Udinese
Parma goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	9%	6%	2%
1	10%	13%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	5%
3	3%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Parma win

Disagrees

Fair

2.46

41% model

Listed

3.00

32% book

Draw

Fair

3.68

27% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Udinese win

Fair

3.11

32% model

Listed

2.50

39% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Parma win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.20

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.71

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.82

BTTS no

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 1.90

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Parma3 out

Hans Nicolussi CavigliaOutHernia
Nesta ElphegeOutAppendicitis
Pontus AlmqvistOutCalf Injury

Udinese4 out

David AlabaOutCalf Injury
Idrissa GueyeOutAnkle Injury
Nicolò ZanioloOutThigh Injury
Vakoun Issouf BayoOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Parma

Udinese

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Parma

LLWLD

03TorinoHome · 19 Oct 2026
xG 1.57–1.56
03InterAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 0.46–2.42
21GenoaHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.53–0.70
12ComoAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.15–2.98
11MonzaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.73–1.72

Udinese

LLLLL

03LecceHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.55–3.40
12TorinoAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 0.76–2.62
01CagliariHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.13–1.12
35InterAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–3.05
12LazioHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–1.83

How to read the Parma vs Udinese probabilities

Parma vs Udinese (Serie A, 28 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Parma win 41%. Expected goals are 1.36–1.18. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Parma and Udinese are close on expected goals (1.36–1.18), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Parma win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Parma vs Udinese

Who is favourite for Parma vs Udinese?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Parma win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 27%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Parma vs Udinese?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Parma vs Udinese go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Parma vs Udinese?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.