Who is favourite for Monza vs Cagliari?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Monza win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 26%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Monza vs Cagliari?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Monza vs Cagliari go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Monza vs Cagliari?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

Monza vs Cagliari prediction

Balanced

Monza win 38%

Mon 19 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon · U-Power Stadium

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

MonzavsCagliari

Balanced

Monza win38%

Monza win: 38%
Draw: 26%
Cagliari win: 36%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.39–1.34
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Monza win 38%, from a -124 Elo gap (1371 vs 1495).
2Expected goals 1.39-1.34.
3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Lorenzo Lucchesi suspended and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1371
-124
1495
Serie A table
Out: Monza5 out
Lorenzo LucchesiSuspended
Idrissa Touré
Jan Ziółkowski
+2 more
Cagliari1 out
Mattia Felici
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Monza
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.83-1.22
Cagliari
DWWWL
Avg xG 1.01-2.00

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction12.6%
2108.7%
3218.4%
4018.4%
5128.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Monza versus Cagliari
Monza goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	8%	6%	3%
1	9%	13%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Monza win

Fair

2.64

38% model

Listed

2.47

39% book

Draw

Fair

3.78

26% model

Listed

3.17

30% book

Cagliari win

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

3.14

31% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 25 hours before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.95
Listed: 2.12

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 1.77

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.79

BTTS no

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 1.95

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Monza5 out

Lorenzo LucchesiSuspendedred card suspension
Idrissa TouréOutKnee Injury
Jan ZiółkowskiOutFoot Injury
Matteo PessinaOutKnee Injury
Solomon LoubaoOutUnknown

Cagliari1 out

Mattia FeliciOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Monza

Cagliari

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Monza

LWLDL

13LazioAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.76–1.84
21SassuoloHome · 18 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–1.47
23LecceAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.07
11ParmaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.72–0.73
23UdineseHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.70–0.98

Cagliari

DWWWL

11JuventusHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.52–1.95
10UdineseAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–2.13
21AtalantaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.32–1.74
10LecceHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.61–0.50
01InterHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.48–3.67

How to read the Monza vs Cagliari probabilities

Monza vs Cagliari (Serie A, 19 Oct 2026): Balanced. Monza win 38%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.34. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Monza and Cagliari are close on expected goals (1.39–1.34), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Monza win
Kick-off: Mon 19 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Monza vs Cagliari

Who is favourite for Monza vs Cagliari?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Monza win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 26%, away 36%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Monza vs Cagliari?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Monza vs Cagliari go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Monza vs Cagliari?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.