Skip to main content
E90

Serie A · Round 8 · 2026/27

Inter vs Fiorentina prediction

Strong favourite

Inter win 74%

· San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IntervsFiorentina
Strong favourite

Inter win74%

Open game
Inter win
74%
Draw
16%
Fiorentina win
10%
Prediction
3–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8%

Grid peak 2–0 at 9%

Expected goals
2.70–0.95

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
71%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over88%
Under12%
2.5 goals
Over71%
Under29%
3.5 goals
Over50%
Under50%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Inter win 74%, from a +266 Elo gap (1778 vs 1512).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.70-0.95.
  3. 3Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 71%.
  5. 5Benjamin Pavard listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1778

+266

1512

Serie A table
Out

Inter4 out

  • Benjamin Pavard
  • Curtis Jones
  • John Stones
  • +1 more

FiorentinaNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Inter

WWDWW

Avg xG 3.07-1.29

Fiorentina

LLDWL

Avg xG 1.84-1.14

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.4%
  2. 2219.0%
  3. 3308.5%
  4. 431Prediction8.1%
  5. 5117.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Inter versus Fiorentina
Inter goals012345
03%2%
17%7%3%
29%9%4%
38%8%4%
46%5%3%
53%3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Inter win

Inter win: model 74%, fair 1.36, listed 1.38 (69%)

Fair

1.36

74% model

Listed

1.38

69% book

Draw

Draw: model 16%, fair 6.33, listed 5.34 (18%)

Fair

6.33

16% model

Listed

5.34

18% book

Fiorentina win

Fiorentina win: model 10%, fair 9.61, listed 7.50 (13%)

Fair

9.61

10% model

Listed

7.50

13% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 71%, fair 1.42, listed 1.44 (66%)

Fair
1.42
Listed
1.44

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 29%, fair 3.41, listed 2.78 (34%)

Fair
3.41
Listed
2.78

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.65 (57%)

Fair
1.73
Listed
1.65

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.37, listed 2.15 (43%)

Fair
2.37
Listed
2.15

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Inter4 out

  • Benjamin PavardOutThigh Injury
  • Curtis JonesOutMuscle Injury
  • John StonesOutThigh Injury
  • Lautaro MartínezOutThigh Injury

FiorentinaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Inter

  1. 1 Josep Martínez · G
  2. 25 Manuel Akanji · D
  3. 31 Yann Bisseck · D
  4. 95 Alessandro Bastoni · D
  5. 7 Piotr Zieliński · M
  6. 8 Petar Sučić · M
  7. 17 Andy Diouf · M
  8. 23 Nicolò Barella · M
  9. 32 Federico Dimarco · M
  10. 10 Lautaro Martínez · F
  11. 94 Francesco Pio Esposito · F

Fiorentina

  1. 43 David De Gea · G
  2. 2 Dodô · D
  3. 3 Radu Drăguşin · D
  4. 6 Luca Ranieri · D
  5. 20 Álex Jiménez · D
  6. 4 Marco Brescianini · M
  7. 14 Arthur Atta · M
  8. 27 Cher Ndour · M
  9. 30 Franco Mastantuono · M
  10. 44 Nicolò Fagioli · M
  11. 32 Mateo Pellegrino · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Inter

WWDWW
  • 31BolognaAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 3.16–1.00

  • 30ParmaHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 2.42–0.46

  • 22AS RomaAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.86–1.66

  • 53UdineseHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 3.05–0.92

  • 32SSC NapoliHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 3.86–2.43

Fiorentina

LLDWL
  • 13ComoHome · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 2.25–1.77

  • 12GenoaAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.82–1.46

  • 11SSC NapoliHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.14–1.40

  • 42VeneziaAway · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 3.31–0.49

  • 12TorinoHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.67–0.58

How to read the Inter vs Fiorentina probabilities

Inter vs Fiorentina (Serie A, 25 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Inter win 74%. Expected goals are 2.70–0.95. Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Inter is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.70–0.95). Inter win is 74%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 9%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 71%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Inter win
Kick-off
Sun 25 Oct, 11:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Inter vs Fiorentina

Who is favourite for Inter vs Fiorentina?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Inter win at 74%. Home 74%, draw 16%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Inter vs Fiorentina?
3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Inter vs Fiorentina go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Inter vs Fiorentina?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Serie A predictions