Who is favourite for Venezia vs SSC Napoli?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is SSC Napoli win at 60%. Home 18%, draw 22%, away 60%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Venezia vs SSC Napoli?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Venezia vs SSC Napoli go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Venezia vs SSC Napoli?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 7 · 2026/27

Venezia vs SSC Napoli prediction

Clear lean

SSC Napoli win 60%

Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon · Stadio Pierluigi Penzo

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 0/4 checks hit

Venezia

1–0

Venezia won

SSC Napoli

1X2

SSC Napoli win

60%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted SSC Napoli win · 60%

Actual Venezia won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

VeneziavsSSC Napoli

Clear lean

SSC Napoli win60%

Venezia win: 18%
Draw: 22%
SSC Napoli win: 60%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.04–2.03
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over82%; Under18%
2.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over59%; Under41%
3.5 goals1 scored · Hit: Over37%; Under63%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: SSC Napoli win 60%, from a -313 Elo gap (1361 vs 1675).
2Expected goals 1.04-2.03.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
4Andrea Adorante listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1361
-313
1675
Serie A table
Out: Venezia4 out
Andrea Adorante
Bartol Franjić
Gianluca Busio
+1 more
SSC Napoli4 out
Alessandro Buongiorno
Antonio Vergara
Costantino Favasuli
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
3-5-2/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Venezia
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.57-2.25
SSC Napoli
WDWLL
Avg xG 1.91-1.47

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal10.4%
212Prediction10.0%
3029.6%
4018.9%
5136.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Venezia versus SSC Napoli
Venezia goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	5%	9%	10%	6%	3%
1	4%	10%	10%	7%	3%
2	3%	5%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:42 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Venezia win

Fair

5.53

18% model

Listed

5.10

19% book

Closing 4.53

Draw

Fair

4.51

22% model

Listed

4.30

23% book

Closing 3.75

SSC Napoli win

Fair

1.67

60% model

Listed

1.70

58% book

Closing 1.84

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 4.53 · D 3.75 · A 1.84 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.69
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.45
Listed: 2.25

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 1.67

BTTS no

Fair: 2.30
Listed: 2.10

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Venezia4 out · 1 doubtful

Andrea AdoranteOutBack Injury
Bartol FranjićOutShoulder Injury
Gianluca BusioOutThigh Injury
Thierry CorreiaOutMuscle Injury
Armel Bella-KotchapDoubtfulMuscle Injury

SSC Napoli4 out

Alessandro BuongiornoOutMeniscus Injury
Antonio VergaraOutCalf Injury
Costantino FavasuliOutThigh Injury
David NeresOutThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Venezia

SSC Napoli

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Venezia

3-5-2

SSC Napoli

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Venezia

LLLLL

13AtalantaAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 2.48–2.19
02LazioHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–1.64
24FiorentinaHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 0.49–3.31
23FrosinoneAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.17–1.90
02AC MilanAway · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.80–2.21

SSC Napoli

WDWLL

30FrosinoneHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 3.12–1.01
11FiorentinaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–1.14
10BolognaHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.19–0.29
23InterAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.43–3.86
12ComoHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.39–1.05

How to read the Venezia vs SSC Napoli probabilities

Venezia vs SSC Napoli (Serie A, 17 Oct 2026): Clear lean. SSC Napoli win 60%. Expected goals are 1.04–2.03. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

SSC Napoli is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.04–2.03). SSC Napoli win is 60%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · SSC Napoli win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Venezia vs SSC Napoli

Who is favourite for Venezia vs SSC Napoli?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is SSC Napoli win at 60%. Home 18%, draw 22%, away 60%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Venezia vs SSC Napoli?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Venezia vs SSC Napoli go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Venezia vs SSC Napoli?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.