Who is favourite for Cagliari vs Bologna?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Bologna win at 38%. Home 33%, draw 30%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Cagliari vs Bologna?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Cagliari vs Bologna go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 39% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Cagliari vs Bologna?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 8 · 2026/27

Cagliari vs Bologna prediction

Balanced

Bologna win 38%

Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon · Unipol Domus

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

CagliarivsBologna

Balanced

Bologna win38%

Cagliari win: 33%
Draw: 30%
Bologna win: 38%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.07–1.17
Over 2.5: 39%
BTTS: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over66%; Under34%
2.5 goals: Over39%; Under61%
3.5 goals: Over19%; Under81%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Bologna win 38%, from a -57 Elo gap (1495 vs 1552).
2Expected goals 1.07-1.17.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Mattia Felici listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1495
-57
1552
Serie A table
Out: Cagliari1 out
Mattia Felici
Bologna3 out
Emil Holm
Riccardo Orsolini
Roberto Piccoli
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Cagliari
DWWWL
Avg xG 1.01-2.00
Bologna
LWDLD
Avg xG 1.21-1.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.8%
20112.0%
30011.1%
41011.0%
5127.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Cagliari versus Bologna
Cagliari goals	0	1	2	3
0	11%	12%	7%	3%
1	11%	14%	8%	3%
2	6%	7%	4%
3	2%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Cagliari win

Fair

3.04

33% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Draw

Fair

3.37

30% model

Listed

3.15

31% book

Bologna win

Fair

2.67

38% model

Listed

2.50

39% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.58
Listed: 2.17

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.63
Listed: 1.73

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.19
Listed: 1.85

BTTS no

Fair: 1.84
Listed: 1.92

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Cagliari1 out

Mattia FeliciOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Bologna3 out

Emil HolmOutHamstring Injury
Riccardo OrsoliniOutThigh Injury
Roberto PiccoliOutHamstring Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Cagliari

Bologna

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Cagliari

DWWWL

11JuventusHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.52–1.95
10UdineseAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–2.13
21AtalantaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.32–1.74
10LecceHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.61–0.50
01InterHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.48–3.67

Bologna

LWDLD

13InterHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.00–3.16
21LecceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.98–1.49
11TorinoHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.14
01SSC NapoliAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.29–1.19
22SassuoloHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.62

How to read the Cagliari vs Bologna probabilities

Cagliari vs Bologna (Serie A, 24 Oct 2026): Balanced. Bologna win 38%. Expected goals are 1.07–1.17. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Cagliari and Bologna are close on expected goals (1.07–1.17), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 39%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Bologna win
Kick-off: Sat 24 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Cagliari vs Bologna

Who is favourite for Cagliari vs Bologna?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Bologna win at 38%. Home 33%, draw 30%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Cagliari vs Bologna?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Cagliari vs Bologna go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 39% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Cagliari vs Bologna?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.