Who is favourite for AS Roma vs Cagliari?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 68%. Home 68%, draw 20%, away 12%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs Cagliari?

2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will AS Roma vs Cagliari go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?

BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction

Clear lean

AS Roma win 68%

Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Published 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

AS RomavsCagliari

Clear lean

AS Roma win68%

AS Roma win: 68%
Draw: 20%
Cagliari win: 12%

Prediction: 2–0
Expected goals: 2.09–0.74
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 46%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: AS Roma win 68%, from a +181 Elo gap (1676 vs 1495).
2Expected goals 2.09-0.74.
3Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1676
+181
1495
Serie A table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: AS Roma
WDDWW
Avg xG 1.78-1.25
Cagliari
DWWWL
Avg xG 1.01-2.00

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

120Prediction12.9%
21012.0%
3219.5%
4119.4%
5309.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for AS Roma versus Cagliari
AS Roma goals	0	1	2
0	6%	4%
1	12%	9%	3%
2	13%	10%	4%
3	9%	7%	2%
4	5%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

AS Roma

Cagliari

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AS Roma

WDDWW

20GenoaHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.33–0.47
00ComoAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.08–1.35
22InterHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.66–2.86
20TorinoAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.85–0.86
21AtalantaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.97–0.70

Cagliari

DWWWL

11JuventusHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.52–1.95
10UdineseAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–2.13
21AtalantaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.32–1.74
10LecceHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.61–0.50
01InterHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.48–3.67

How to read the AS Roma vs Cagliari probabilities

AS Roma vs Cagliari (Serie A, 27 Oct 2026): Clear lean. AS Roma win 68%. Expected goals are 2.09–0.74. Prediction 2–0 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

AS Roma is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.09–0.74). AS Roma win is 68%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–0 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 46%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1033
Verdict: Clear lean · AS Roma win
Kick-off: Tue 27 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AS Roma vs Cagliari

Who is favourite for AS Roma vs Cagliari?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is AS Roma win at 68%. Home 68%, draw 20%, away 12%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AS Roma vs Cagliari?: 2–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will AS Roma vs Cagliari go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AS Roma vs Cagliari?: BTTS is 46%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.