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E90

Serie A round 7 results

Serie A round 7 has 6 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 50%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Udinese vs Lecce; Venezia vs SSC Napoli; Frosinone vs Sassuolo. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Italy. Model sa-v1.1.0-elo. Round 7. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Serie A reliability

Round 7 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 40% (237 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 48% (365 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 57% (266 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 65% (184 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 76% (75 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 69% (13 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Serie A: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0242 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0242. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 75 matches.

ECE
0.0242
Log loss
0.9830
RPS
0.1938
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%40%237+3%
40–50%45%48%365+3%
50–60%55%57%266+2%
60–70%64%65%184+0%
70–80%74%76%75+2%
80–90%83%69%13−14%
Jump to roundAll7

Serie A round 7 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
6
Favourite-correct
50%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Fiorentina vs Como71–31–2MissComo win · 52%HitOverHitYesHit
Udinese vs Lecce70–32–1MissUdinese win · 56%MissUnderMissNoHit
AS Roma vs Genoa72–02–0HitAS Roma win · 76%HitOverMissNoHit
Bologna vs Inter71–31–2MissInter win · 61%HitOverHitNoMiss
Venezia vs SSC Napoli71–01–2MissSSC Napoli win · 60%MissOverMissYesMiss
Frosinone vs Sassuolo74–21–1MissSassuolo win · 37%MissOverHitYesHit

Serie A predictions

Serie A round 7 questions

How did Expected90 do in Serie A round 7?
6 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 50% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Serie A round 7 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Serie A rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 7.

sa-v1.1.0-elo

Serie A

Round 7 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
6 · 6
Log loss
0.9702·0.9939

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0237

RPS
0.2555·0.2567

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0012

Brier
0.5652·0.5807

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0155

Goal MAE
1.08
1X2 accuracy
50%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.56 · 60.7684·0.6586Δ +0.10980.2867·0.233450%Model · Closing line
Under 2.56 · 60.7684·0.6586Δ +0.10980.2867·0.233450%Model · Closing line
BTTS6 · 60.6668·0.6099Δ +0.05690.2369·0.209567%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.