Who is favourite for Genoa vs Juventus?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Juventus win at 59%. Home 18%, draw 23%, away 59%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Genoa vs Juventus?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Genoa vs Juventus go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Genoa vs Juventus?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Serie A · Round 9 · 2026/27

Genoa vs Juventus prediction

Clear lean

Juventus win 59%

Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon · Luigi Ferraris

Published 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

GenoavsJuventus

Clear lean

Juventus win59%

Genoa win: 18%
Draw: 23%
Juventus win: 59%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.89–1.79
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over75%; Under25%
2.5 goals: Over50%; Under50%
3.5 goals: Over28%; Under72%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Juventus win 59%, from a -187 Elo gap (1459 vs 1647).
2Expected goals 0.89-1.79.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%.
4Djibril Sow listed out and 10 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1459
-187
1647
Serie A table
Out: Genoa4 out
Djibril Sow
Elias Havel
Franz-Ethan Meichtry
+1 more
Juventus7 out
Arkadiusz Milik
Francisco Conceição
Jeff Ekhator
+4 more
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Genoa
LWLDL
Avg xG 1.06-1.28
Juventus
LDWLD
Avg xG 1.34-0.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal12.0%
21111.1%
30211.0%
412Prediction9.8%
5007.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Genoa versus Juventus
Genoa goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	7%	12%	11%	7%	3%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%
2	3%	5%	4%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Genoa win

Fair

5.54

18% model

Listed

5.80

17% book

Draw

Fair

4.28

23% model

Listed

3.86

25% book

Juventus win

Fair

1.71

59% model

Listed

1.68

58% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.99
Listed: 2.10

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.01
Listed: 1.79

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.99

BTTS no

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 1.75

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Genoa4 out

Djibril SowOutThigh Injury
Elias HavelOutAnkle Injury
Franz-Ethan MeichtryOutMuscle Injury
Lorenzo ColomboOutAnkle Injury

Juventus7 out

Arkadiusz MilikOutcoach decision
Francisco ConceiçãoOutDislocated Shoulder
Jeff EkhatorOutThigh Injury
Kamil GrabaraOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Kenan YıldızOutBroken Foot
Khéphren ThuramOutKnee Surgery
Manuel LocatelliOutMeniscus Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Genoa

Juventus

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Genoa

LWLDL

02AS RomaAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.47–1.33
21FiorentinaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.46–0.82
12ParmaAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.70–0.53
11FrosinoneHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.93
14ComoHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.78–1.78

Juventus

LDWLD

03LazioHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 0.75–0.57
11CagliariAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.95–0.52
20AtalantaHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.60
23SassuoloAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.10–1.02
11AC MilanHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.59–0.11

How to read the Genoa vs Juventus probabilities

Genoa vs Juventus (Serie A, 28 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Juventus win 59%. Expected goals are 0.89–1.79. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Juventus is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.89–1.79). Juventus win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 20:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: sa-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Juventus win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Genoa vs Juventus

Who is favourite for Genoa vs Juventus?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Juventus win at 59%. Home 18%, draw 23%, away 59%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Genoa vs Juventus?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Genoa vs Juventus go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Genoa vs Juventus?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.