Ligue 1 predictions

Explore upcoming Ligue 1 matches with data-driven win probabilities, expected goals, and predicted scorelines. Every forecast is recorded before kick-off and can be compared with the final result.

Upcoming

Round 81 match

Ligue 1 · Round 8Mon 26 Oct, 19:30 Lisbon

Paris Saint-GermainvsOlympique Lyonnais

Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win64%

Open game

Saint-Germain: 64%
Draw: 20%
Lyonnais: 16%

xG home: 2.29
xG away: 1.08
Over 2.5: 65%
BTTS: 60%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Round 98 matches

Ligue 1 · Round 9Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Le HavrevsParis Saint-Germain

Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win64%

Open game

Havre: 16%
Draw: 20%
Saint-Germain: 64%

xG home: 1.03
xG away: 2.23
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 58%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Fri 30 Oct, 20:05 Lisbon

Slight lean

Lille win43%

Lille: 43%
Draw: 25%
Lens: 32%

xG home: 1.61
xG away: 1.34
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 59%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sat 31 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

NicevsStade Rennais

Balanced

Stade Rennais win39%

Both likely

Nice: 36%
Draw: 25%
Rennais: 39%

xG home: 1.46
xG away: 1.54
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 61%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

LorientvsStade Brestois

Balanced

Lorient win38%

Lorient: 38%
Draw: 27%
Brestois: 35%

xG home: 1.35
xG away: 1.29
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 54%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Olympique LyonnaisvsAngers

Clear lean

Olympique Lyonnais win63%

Lyonnais: 63%
Draw: 21%
Angers: 16%

xG home: 2.05
xG away: 0.95
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 54%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

TroyesvsLe Mans

Slight lean

Troyes win44%

Troyes: 44%
Draw: 27%
Mans: 29%

xG home: 1.42
xG away: 1.11
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lisbon

RC StrasbourgvsAuxerre

Slight lean

RC Strasbourg win52%

Strasbourg: 52%
Draw: 25%
Auxerre: 24%

xG home: 1.71
xG away: 1.10
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 55%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 9Sun 1 Nov, 16:15 Lisbon

Paris FCvsAS Monaco

Slight lean

Paris FC win43%

Open gameBoth likely

FC: 43%
Draw: 24%
Monaco: 33%

xG home: 1.67
xG away: 1.44
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Result pending

Kick-off has passed and the score has not been ingested yet. Forecasts stay frozen; these matches are not listed as upcoming.

Round 85 matches

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Result pending

AngersvsLorient

Balanced

Lorient win38%

Angers: 35%
Draw: 27%
Lorient: 38%

xG home: 1.36
xG away: 1.41
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 57%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Result pending

AuxerrevsLe Mans

Slight lean

Auxerre win51%

Auxerre: 51%
Draw: 27%
Mans: 22%

xG home: 1.57
xG away: 0.94
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 49%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Result pending

Olympique de MarseillevsLe Havre

Clear lean

Olympique de Marseille win57%

Open gameBoth likely

Marseille: 57%
Draw: 22%
Havre: 20%

xG home: 2.06
xG away: 1.17
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 61%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Result pending

Stade RennaisvsRC Strasbourg

Clear lean

Stade Rennais win60%

Open game

Rennais: 60%
Draw: 22%
Strasbourg: 19%

xG home: 2.11
xG away: 1.11
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 59%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Result pending

ToulousevsTroyes

Clear lean

Toulouse win59%

Toulouse: 59%
Draw: 23%
Troyes: 18%

xG home: 1.82
xG away: 0.91
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 50%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

9 upcoming Ligue 1 forecasts, covering rounds 8 and 9. Explore the Ligue 1 Elo rankings · Ligue 1 predictions today · Scored Ligue 1 results.

Historical predictions

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

AS MonacovsLille

Final 1–1·AS Monaco win 40%

Miss

Monaco: 40%
Draw: 25%
Lille: 35%

xG home: 1.58
xG away: 1.47
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 61%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Sat 24 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

RC LensvsParis FC

Final 2–1·RC Lens win 54%

Hit

Lens: 54%
Draw: 24%
FC: 22%

xG home: 1.82
xG away: 1.08
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 8Fri 23 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Stade BrestoisvsNice

Final 1–2·Stade Brestois win 48%

Miss

Brestois: 48%
Draw: 25%
Nice: 27%

xG home: 1.61
xG away: 1.15
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Olympique LyonnaisvsNice

Final 2–1·Olympique Lyonnais win 54%

Hit

Lyonnais: 54%
Draw: 25%
Nice: 21%

xG home: 1.78
xG away: 1.03
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Le HavrevsAuxerre

Final 1–3·Le Havre win 50%

Miss

Havre: 50%
Draw: 27%
Auxerre: 23%

xG home: 1.49
xG away: 0.92
Over 2.5: 43%
BTTS: 47%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

LorientvsAS Monaco

Final 1–0·AS Monaco win 44%

Miss

Lorient: 30%
Draw: 26%
Monaco: 44%

xG home: 1.19
xG away: 1.49
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Paris FCvsStade Rennais

Final 4–3·Paris FC win 41%

Hit

FC: 41%
Draw: 25%
Rennais: 33%

xG home: 1.57
xG away: 1.38
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 60%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

AngersvsOlympique de Marseille

Final 2–5·Olympique de Marseille win 43%

Hit

Angers: 32%
Draw: 26%
Marseille: 43%

xG home: 1.30
xG away: 1.55
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 58%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

LillevsStade Brestois

Final 1–1·Lille win 55%

Miss

Lille: 55%
Draw: 23%
Brestois: 21%

xG home: 1.86
xG away: 1.07
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 56%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

TroyesvsRC Lens

Final 1–3·RC Lens win 39%

Hit

Troyes: 34%
Draw: 27%
Lens: 39%

xG home: 1.26
xG away: 1.38
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 54%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Sat 17 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

RC StrasbourgvsParis Saint-Germain

Final 1–3·Paris Saint-Germain win 60%

Hit

Strasbourg: 19%
Draw: 21%
Saint-Germain: 60%

xG home: 1.14
xG away: 2.15
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 60%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

Ligue 1 · Round 7Fri 16 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Le MansvsToulouse

Final 0–3·Toulouse win 43%

Hit

Mans: 32%
Draw: 25%
Toulouse: 43%

xG home: 1.35
xG away: 1.60
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 59%

l1-v1.1.0-elo

How these forecasts are made

Ligue 1 probabilities come from expected goals, a score grid, and Elo team strength. Model l1-v1.1.0-elo. The method is on the methodology page. A played match keeps the forecast that was published before kick-off. Official competition site: ligue1.com.

Ligue 1 clubs

Angers AS Monaco Auxerre Le Havre Le Mans Lille Lorient Nice Olympique de Marseille Olympique Lyonnais Paris FC Paris Saint-Germain RC Lens RC Strasbourg Stade Brestois Stade Rennais Toulouse Troyes

Ligue 1 prediction questions

Where can I find Ligue 1 predictions today?: Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures are listed first on this hub, with a dedicated today view at /football-predictions/today. Each match has its own URL with xG, 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS.
How does Expected90 predict Ligue 1 matches?: Ligue 1 forecasts use expected goals as Poisson means, a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores, and Elo team strength. Home/draw/away, Over 2.5 and BTTS are summed from one score grid.
Are Ligue 1 predictions betting tips?: No. These are probabilities, timestamped before kick-off. Misses stay on the page. There is no odds CTA.
Can I check yesterday’s Ligue 1 prediction?: Yes. Historical forecasts remain on this hub and on each match URL, with the original probabilities and the final score.