Who is favourite for Troyes vs Le Mans?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Troyes win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 27%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Troyes vs Le Mans?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Troyes vs Le Mans go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Troyes vs Le Mans?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 2627.0

Troyes vs Le Mans prediction

Slight lean

Troyes win 44%

Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

TroyesvsLe Mans

Slight lean

Troyes win44%

Troyes win: 44%
Draw: 27%
Le Mans win: 29%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.11
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over72%; Under28%
2.5 goals: Over46%; Under54%
3.5 goals: Over25%; Under75%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Troyes win 44%, from a -85 Elo gap (1345 vs 1430).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.11.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1345
-85
1430
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Troyes
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.33-1.92
Le Mans
LLWDD
Avg xG 1.43-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.9%
21010.9%
321Prediction8.9%
4018.5%
5008.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Troyes versus Le Mans
Troyes goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	9%	5%
1	11%	13%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	5%
3	4%	4%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Troyes win

Fair

2.29

44% model

Listed

2.16

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.69

27% model

Listed

3.70

26% book

Le Mans win

Fair

3.41

29% model

Listed

3.45

28% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Troyes

Le Mans

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Troyes

LLLLL

13RC LensHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.24–1.43
02Olympique de MarseilleHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.06–1.30
02AngersAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–2.25
02LilleAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.38–1.65
26RC StrasbourgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.94–2.95

Le Mans

LLWDD

03ToulouseHome · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.95–1.81
13Paris Saint-GermainAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–4.25
21LorientHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–0.97
22RC LensHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.59–1.62
11NiceAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.28–1.12

How to read the Troyes vs Le Mans probabilities

Troyes vs Le Mans (Ligue 1, 31 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Troyes win 44%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.11. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Troyes holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.42–1.11). That shows up as Troyes win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Troyes win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 19:45 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Troyes vs Le Mans

Who is favourite for Troyes vs Le Mans?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Troyes win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 27%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Troyes vs Le Mans?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Troyes vs Le Mans go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Troyes vs Le Mans?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.