Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Paris Saint-Germain win at 64%. Home 16%, draw 20%, away 64%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?

1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 63% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 2026/27

Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction

Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win 64%

Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 23 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Le HavrevsParis Saint-Germain

Clear lean

Paris Saint-Germain win64%

Open game

Le Havre win: 16%
Draw: 20%
Paris Saint-Germain win: 64%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.03–2.23
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over84%; Under16%
2.5 goals: Over63%; Under37%
3.5 goals: Over41%; Under59%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Paris Saint-Germain win 64%, from a -336 Elo gap (1417 vs 1753).
2Expected goals 1.03-2.23.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 63%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1417
-336
1753
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Le Havre
LLLDL
Avg xG 1.67-1.77
Paris Saint-Germain
WWWWL
Avg xG 2.95-1.29

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

112Prediction9.8%
2029.5%
3119.1%
4018.3%
5137.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Le Havre versus Paris Saint-Germain
Le Havre goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	4%	8%	10%	7%	4%
1	4%	9%	10%	7%	4%
2	2%	5%	5%	4%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Le Havre win

Fair

6.18

16% model

Listed

11.50

9% book

Draw

Fair

5.06

20% model

Listed

7.00

14% book

Paris Saint-Germain win

Disagrees

Fair

1.56

64% model

Listed

1.27

77% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Paris Saint-Germain win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 23 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Le Havre

Paris Saint-Germain

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Le Havre

LLLDL

13AuxerreHome · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.40–2.70
01LilleAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.28–1.26
23ToulouseAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.34–1.95
00AngersHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–0.59
12Stade BrestoisHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.02–2.37

Paris Saint-Germain

WWWWL

31RC StrasbourgAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 2.69–1.47
31Le MansHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 4.25–1.43
21Olympique de MarseilleAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 4.33–1.80
10Stade BrestoisAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–1.24
12AS MonacoHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 2.32–0.51

How to read the Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain probabilities

Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain (Ligue 1, 30 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Paris Saint-Germain win 64%. Expected goals are 1.03–2.23. Prediction 1–2 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Paris Saint-Germain is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.03–2.23). Paris Saint-Germain win is 64%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–2 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 63%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 23 Oct 2026, 18:05 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Paris Saint-Germain win
Kick-off: Fri 30 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain

Who is favourite for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Paris Saint-Germain win at 64%. Home 16%, draw 20%, away 64%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?: 1–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 63% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Le Havre vs Paris Saint-Germain?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.