Who is favourite for RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is RC Strasbourg win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 25%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 2627.0

RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre prediction

Slight lean

RC Strasbourg win 52%

Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

RC StrasbourgvsAuxerre

Slight lean

RC Strasbourg win52%

RC Strasbourg win: 52%
Draw: 25%
Auxerre win: 24%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.71–1.10
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over53%; Under47%
3.5 goals: Over31%; Under69%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: RC Strasbourg win 52%, from a +84 Elo gap (1549 vs 1465).
2Expected goals 1.71-1.10.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1549
+84
1465
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: RC Strasbourg
LLLDW
Avg xG 1.24-1.74
Auxerre
WLWWL
Avg xG 1.51-1.63

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.6%
21010.0%
321Prediction9.7%
4208.8%
5006.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for RC Strasbourg versus Auxerre
RC Strasbourg goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	6%	4%
1	10%	12%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

RC Strasbourg win

Fair

1.94

52% model

Listed

1.86

53% book

Draw

Fair

4.08

25% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Auxerre win

Fair

4.17

24% model

Listed

4.40

23% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 9 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

RC Strasbourg

Auxerre

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

RC Strasbourg

LLLDW

13Paris Saint-GermainHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.47–2.69
12NiceAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 0.63–1.25
12Paris FCAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.23–1.02
11AS MonacoHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.90–0.78
62TroyesAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.95–2.94

Auxerre

WLWWL

31Le HavreAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 2.70–1.40
14Stade RennaisAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.76–2.56
21Stade BrestoisHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.65–0.26
10NiceHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.74–1.08
13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–2.85

How to read the RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre probabilities

RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre (Ligue 1, 1 Nov 2026): Slight lean. RC Strasbourg win 52%. Expected goals are 1.71–1.10. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

RC Strasbourg holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.71–1.10). That shows up as RC Strasbourg win at 52%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 17:13 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · RC Strasbourg win
Kick-off: Sun 1 Nov, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre

Who is favourite for RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is RC Strasbourg win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 25%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in RC Strasbourg vs Auxerre?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.