Who is favourite for Toulouse vs Troyes?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 24%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Toulouse vs Troyes?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Toulouse vs Troyes go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Toulouse vs Troyes?

BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 2026/27

Toulouse vs Troyes prediction

Clear lean

Toulouse win 58%

Sat 24 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon · Stadium de Toulouse

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

ToulousevsTroyes

Clear lean

Toulouse win58%

Toulouse win: 58%
Draw: 24%
Troyes win: 18%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.82–0.90
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Toulouse win 58%, from a +164 Elo gap (1509 vs 1345).
2Expected goals 1.82-0.90.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Anis Ouzenadji listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1509
+164
1345
Ligue 1 table
Out: ToulouseNone out
No listed absences
Troyes2 out
Anis Ouzenadji
Yvann Titi
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Toulouse
WDWDL
Avg xG 2.06-1.32
Troyes
LLLLL
Avg xG 1.33-1.92

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.5%
21011.3%
32010.9%
421Prediction9.8%
5007.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Toulouse versus Troyes
Toulouse goals	0	1	2
0	7%	5%	3%
1	11%	11%	5%
2	11%	10%	4%
3	7%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:36 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Toulouse win

Fair

1.72

58% model

Listed

1.63

58% book

Draw

Fair

4.15

24% model

Listed

4.16

23% book

Troyes win

Fair

5.68

18% model

Listed

5.00

19% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.95
Listed: 1.62

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 2.33

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.67

BTTS no

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 2.10

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

ToulouseNone out

No listed absences.

Troyes2 out

Anis OuzenadjiOutSprained Ankle
Yvann TitiOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Toulouse

Troyes

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Toulouse

WDWDL

30Le MansAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 1.81–0.95
22AS MonacoAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–1.17
32Le HavreHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.95–2.34
22LorientAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.63–0.93
01LilleHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 3.46–1.21

Troyes

LLLLL

13RC LensHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.24–1.43
02Olympique de MarseilleHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.06–1.30
02AngersAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–2.25
02LilleAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.38–1.65
26RC StrasbourgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.94–2.95

How to read the Toulouse vs Troyes probabilities

Toulouse vs Troyes (Ligue 1, 24 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Toulouse win 58%. Expected goals are 1.82–0.90. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Toulouse is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.82–0.90). Toulouse win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Toulouse win
Kick-off: Sat 24 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Toulouse vs Troyes

Who is favourite for Toulouse vs Troyes?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Toulouse win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 24%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Toulouse vs Troyes?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Toulouse vs Troyes go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Toulouse vs Troyes?: BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.