Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Le Mans?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Auxerre win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 27%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Le Mans?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Auxerre vs Le Mans go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?

BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 8 · 2026/27

Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction

Slight lean

Auxerre win 51%

Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Published 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

AuxerrevsLe Mans

Slight lean

Auxerre win51%

Auxerre win: 51%
Draw: 27%
Le Mans win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.57–0.94
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over72%; Under28%
2.5 goals: Over46%; Under54%
3.5 goals: Over25%; Under75%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Auxerre win 51%, from a +27 Elo gap (1457 vs 1430).
2Expected goals 1.57-0.94.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1457
+27
1430
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Auxerre
DLWWL
Avg xG 1.22-1.69
Le Mans
LLWDD
Avg xG 1.43-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.8%
21012.0%
32010.0%
421Prediction9.4%
5008.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Auxerre versus Le Mans
Auxerre goals	0	1	2
0	9%	7%	4%
1	12%	13%	6%
2	10%	9%	4%
3	5%	5%	2%
4	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 20 Oct 2026, 07:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Auxerre win

Fair

1.95

51% model

Listed

2.25

44% book

Draw

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

3.68

27% book

Le Mans win

Disagrees

Fair

4.59

22% model

Listed

3.33

30% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Le Mans win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Auxerre

Le Mans

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Auxerre

DLWWL

00Le HavreAway · 18 Oct 2026
14Stade RennaisAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.76–2.56
21Stade BrestoisHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.65–0.26
10NiceHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.74–1.08
13Olympique LyonnaisAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–2.85

Le Mans

LLWDD

03ToulouseHome · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.95–1.81
13Paris Saint-GermainAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.43–4.25
21LorientHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–0.97
22RC LensHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.59–1.62
11NiceAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.28–1.12

How to read the Auxerre vs Le Mans probabilities

Auxerre vs Le Mans (Ligue 1, 25 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Auxerre win 51%. Expected goals are 1.57–0.94. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Auxerre holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–0.94). That shows up as Auxerre win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 46%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Oct 2026, 07:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1026
Verdict: Slight lean · Auxerre win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Auxerre vs Le Mans

Who is favourite for Auxerre vs Le Mans?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Auxerre win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 27%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Auxerre vs Le Mans?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Auxerre vs Le Mans go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 46% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?: BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.