Who is favourite for Nice vs Stade Rennais?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Stade Rennais win at 39%. Home 36%, draw 25%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nice vs Stade Rennais?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Nice vs Stade Rennais go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nice vs Stade Rennais?

BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Ligue 1 · Round 9 · 2627.0

Nice vs Stade Rennais prediction

Balanced

Stade Rennais win 39%

Sat 31 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Published 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

NicevsStade Rennais

Balanced

Stade Rennais win39%

Both likely

Nice win: 36%
Draw: 25%
Stade Rennais win: 39%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.46–1.54
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over58%; Under42%
3.5 goals: Over35%; Under65%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Stade Rennais win 39%, from a -74 Elo gap (1501 vs 1575).
2Expected goals 1.46-1.54.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Both teams to score at 61%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1501
-74
1575
Ligue 1 table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Nice
LWWLD
Avg xG 1.30-1.35
Stade Rennais
LWLWW
Avg xG 2.14-2.30

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.5%
212Prediction8.6%
3218.2%
4017.4%
5107.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nice versus Stade Rennais
Nice goals	0	1	2	3
0	5%	7%	6%	3%
1	7%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 08:17 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nice win

Fair

2.80

36% model

Listed

2.85

34% book

Draw

Fair

4.02

25% model

Listed

3.90

25% book

Stade Rennais win

Fair

2.54

39% model

Listed

2.43

40% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 8 days before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Nice

Stade Rennais

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nice

LWWLD

12Olympique LyonnaisAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.55–1.51
21RC StrasbourgHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.25–0.63
21LilleHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.50–1.58
01AuxerreAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.08–1.74
11Le MansHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.12–1.28

Stade Rennais

LWLWW

34Paris FCAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 3.35–3.62
41AuxerreHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 2.56–1.76
04Olympique LyonnaisAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.37–3.13
10Olympique de MarseilleHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.88–1.34
21AngersAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–1.66

How to read the Nice vs Stade Rennais probabilities

Nice vs Stade Rennais (Ligue 1, 31 Oct 2026): Balanced. Stade Rennais win 39%. Expected goals are 1.46–1.54. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Nice and Stade Rennais are close on expected goals (1.46–1.54), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: l1-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Stade Rennais win
Kick-off: Sat 31 Oct, 16:15 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Nice vs Stade Rennais

Who is favourite for Nice vs Stade Rennais?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Stade Rennais win at 39%. Home 36%, draw 25%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nice vs Stade Rennais?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nice vs Stade Rennais go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nice vs Stade Rennais?: BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.