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La Liga round 10 results

La Liga round 10 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 60%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche; Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Spain. Model la-v1.4.0-elo-span16. Round 10. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

La Liga reliability

Round 10 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 37%, happened 38% (242 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 46% (385 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 55% (258 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 71% (138 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 75% (69 matches)80–90%: predicted 84%, happened 93% (43 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (5 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
La Liga: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0180 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0180. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 75% of 69 matches.

ECE
0.0180
Log loss
0.9703
RPS
0.1935
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
53%
Goal MAE
0.85
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%37%38%242+0%
40–50%45%46%385+1%
50–60%55%55%258+0%
60–70%64%71%138+7%
70–80%75%75%69+1%
80–90%84%93%43+9%
90–100%92%100%5+8%
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La Liga round 10 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
5
Favourite-correct
60%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña101–02–1MissAtlético Madrid win · 74%HitOverMissYesMiss
Valencia vs Villarreal101–21–2HitVillarreal win · 46%HitUnderMissYesHit
Real Racing Club vs Espanyol102–11–1MissReal Racing Club win · 38%HitUnderMissYesHit
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche100–32–1MissRayo Vallecano win · 58%MissOverHitYesMiss
Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF101–12–1MissDeportivo Alavés win · 61%MissOverMissNoMiss

Previous: round 9All La Liga results

La Liga predictions

La Liga round 10 questions

How did Expected90 do in La Liga round 10?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 60% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the La Liga round 10 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other La Liga rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 1, round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 6, round 7, round 9, round 10.

la-v1.4.0-elo-span16

La Liga

Round 10 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
5 · 5
Log loss
1.0394·1.0000

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0394

RPS
0.2344·0.2247

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0097

Brier
0.6337·0.6065

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0272

Goal MAE
0.87
1X2 accuracy
60%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.55 · 50.7741·0.6705Δ +0.10360.2895·0.238520%Model · Closing line
Under 2.55 · 50.7741·0.6705Δ +0.10360.2895·0.238520%Model · Closing line
BTTS5 · 50.7055·0.6272Δ +0.07840.2562·0.217640%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.