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La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés prediction

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win 45%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Celta VigovsDeportivo Alavés
Slight lean

Celta Vigo win45%

Celta Vigo win
45%
Draw
27%
Deportivo Alavés win
28%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.38–1.02

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
43%
BTTS
48%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over69%
Under31%
2.5 goals
Over43%
Under57%
3.5 goals
Over22%
Under78%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Celta Vigo win 45%, from a +32 Elo gap (1507 vs 1475).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.38-1.02.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1507

+32

1475

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Celta Vigo

WDDDL

Avg xG 1.20-1.15

Deportivo Alavés

DLLWW

Avg xG 1.01-1.43

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 21012.4%
  3. 3019.3%
  4. 4009.0%
  5. 521Prediction8.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Deportivo Alavés
Celta Vigo goals012345
09%9%5%
112%13%7%2%
29%9%5%
34%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Celta Vigo win

Celta Vigo win: model 45%, fair 2.22, listed 2.27 (43%)

Fair

2.22

45% model

Listed

2.27

43% book

Draw

Disagrees

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.69, listed 3.10 (31%)

Fair

3.69

27% model

Listed

3.10

31% book

Deportivo Alavés win

Deportivo Alavés win: model 28%, fair 3.58, listed 3.78 (26%)

Fair

3.58

28% model

Listed

3.78

26% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.56 (38%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.56

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.58 (62%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.58

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 2.05 (45%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
2.05

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.70 (55%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
1.70

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Celta Vigo

  1. 13 Ionuț Radu · G
  2. 3 Marcos Alonso · D
  3. 5 Sergio Carreira · D
  4. 20 Javi Rodríguez · D
  5. 29 Yoel Lago · D
  6. 6 Ilaix Moriba · M
  7. 8 Miguel Román · M
  8. 16 Hugo González · M
  9. 17 Javier Rueda · M
  10. 9 Ferrán Jutglà · F
  11. 19 Williot Swedberg · F

Deportivo Alavés

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  3. 16 Ville Koski · D
  4. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  5. 4 Denis Suárez · M
  6. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  7. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  8. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  9. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Celta Vigo

WDDDL
  • 50Real Racing ClubHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.08–0.61

  • 11Málaga CFHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.78–0.48

  • 11GetafeAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.96–0.81

  • 00Real SociedadAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 0.43–1.05

  • 02Athletic ClubHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.75–2.78

Deportivo Alavés

DLLWW
  • 00Athletic ClubAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.05–1.65

  • 01ValenciaHome · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 1.05–0.65

  • 12Real Racing ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.04–1.46

  • 52OsasunaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.20–1.64

  • 10VillarrealHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 0.73–1.74

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés (La Liga, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Celta Vigo win 45%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.02. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Celta Vigo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.38–1.02). That shows up as Celta Vigo win at 45%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 43%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 48%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 27%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 43% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés?
BTTS is 48%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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