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La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad prediction

Slight lean

Real Sociedad win 44%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Málaga CFvsReal Sociedad
Slight lean

Real Sociedad win44%

Málaga CF win
29%
Draw
27%
Real Sociedad win
44%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.07–1.40

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
45%
BTTS
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over71%
Under29%
2.5 goals
Over45%
Under55%
3.5 goals
Over24%
Under76%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Real Sociedad win 44%, from a -146 Elo gap (1359 vs 1505).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.07-1.40.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.

Match briefing

Elo

1359

-146

1505

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Málaga CF

LLDDL

Avg xG 0.76-1.89

Real Sociedad

WLWDW

Avg xG 1.27-1.45

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.7%
  2. 20111.9%
  3. 3109.1%
  4. 412Prediction8.9%
  5. 5008.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Málaga CF versus Real Sociedad
Málaga CF goals012345
08%12%8%4%
19%13%9%4%
25%7%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Málaga CF win

Málaga CF win: model 29%, fair 3.47, listed 3.20 (30%)

Fair

3.47

29% model

Listed

3.20

30% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.74, listed 3.62 (27%)

Fair

3.74

27% model

Listed

3.62

27% book

Real Sociedad win

Real Sociedad win: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 2.25 (43%)

Fair

2.25

44% model

Listed

2.25

43% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 1.67 (58%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
1.67

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 2.31 (42%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
2.31

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 49%, fair 2.02, listed 1.51 (61%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
1.51

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 51%, fair 1.98, listed 2.42 (39%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
2.42

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Málaga CF

  1. 1 Alfonso Herrero · G
  2. 4 Einar Galilea · D
  3. 12 Jose Salinas · D
  4. 15 Ángel Recio · D
  5. 31 Rafa Garrido · D
  6. 8 Carlos Dotor · M
  7. 10 David Larrubia · M
  8. 11 Joaquín Muñoz · M
  9. 22 Dani Lorenzo · M
  10. 23 Izan Merino · M
  11. 9 Chupete · F

Real Sociedad

  1. 1 Álex Remiro · G
  2. 2 Jon Aramburu · D
  3. 5 Igor Zubeldia · D
  4. 17 Sergio Gómez · D
  5. 31 Jon Martin · D
  6. 34 Luken Beitia · D
  7. 8 Beñat Turrientes · M
  8. 18 Carlos Soler · M
  9. 21 Yangel Herrera · M
  10. 24 Luka Sučić · M
  11. 10 Mikel Oyarzabal · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Málaga CF

LLDDL
  • 01GetafeAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.52–0.90

  • 13VillarrealHome · 17 Sept 2026

    xG 0.63–3.33

  • 11Celta VigoAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–1.78

  • 00Levante UDHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.46–0.81

  • 04Real MadridAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.71–2.62

Real Sociedad

WLWDW
  • 32ValenciaAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.65–1.55

  • 03Atlético MadridHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 0.27–2.05

  • 32ElcheAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.58–2.47

  • 00Celta VigoHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.05–0.43

  • 21EspanyolHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.82–0.77

How to read the Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad probabilities

Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Real Sociedad win 44%. Expected goals are 1.07–1.40. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Real Sociedad holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.07–1.40). That shows up as Real Sociedad win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is only 45%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Real Sociedad win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad

Who is favourite for Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Real Sociedad win at 44%. Home 29%, draw 27%, away 44%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 45% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Málaga CF vs Real Sociedad?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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