Skip to main content
E90

Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF prediction

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win 72%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Halmstads BKvsHammarby IF
Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win72%

Open game
Halmstads BK win
11%
Draw
16%
Hammarby IF win
72%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 0–2 at 12%

Expected goals
0.82–2.38

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
62%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over83%
Under17%
2.5 goals
Over62%
Under38%
3.5 goals
Over40%
Under60%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Hammarby IF win 72%, from a -230 Elo gap (1424 vs 1655).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.82-2.38.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 12%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 62%.

Match briefing

Elo

1424

-230

1655

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Halmstads BK

WLLWD

Avg xG 1.58-2.16

Hammarby IF

WWDLW

Avg xG 3.36-1.31

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 102Modal11.6%
  2. 20110.0%
  3. 312Prediction9.5%
  4. 4039.2%
  5. 5117.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Halmstads BK versus Hammarby IF
Halmstads BK goals012345
04%10%12%9%5%3%
14%8%9%7%4%2%
23%4%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Halmstads BK win

Halmstads BK win: model 11%, fair 8.83, listed 12.00 (8%)

Fair

8.83

11% model

Listed

12.00

8% book

Draw

Draw: model 16%, fair 6.08, listed 6.81 (15%)

Fair

6.08

16% model

Listed

6.81

15% book

Hammarby IF win

Hammarby IF win: model 72%, fair 1.38, listed 1.28 (77%)

Fair

1.38

72% model

Listed

1.28

77% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 62%, fair 1.62, listed 1.44 (67%)

Fair
1.62
Listed
1.44

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 38%, fair 2.62, listed 2.90 (33%)

Fair
2.62
Listed
2.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 1.98, listed 1.85 (51%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.85

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 2.02, listed 1.89 (49%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
1.89

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Halmstads BK

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 17 Andre Boman · D
  5. 6 Joel Allansson · M
  6. 8 Niilo Mäenpää · M
  7. 11 Ludvig Arvidsson · M
  8. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  9. 19 Marvin Illary · M
  10. 24 Rami Kaib · M
  11. 27 Rocco Ascone · M

Hammarby IF

  1. 1 Warner Hahn · G
  2. 2 Hampus Skoglund · D
  3. 3 Frederik Winther · D
  4. 6 Ibrahima Fofana · D
  5. 16 Noah Persson · D
  6. 8 Markus Karlsson · M
  7. 9 Victor Lind · M
  8. 17 Amin Boudri · M
  9. 26 Montader Madjed · M
  10. 28 Frank Junior Adjei · M
  11. 7 Paulos Abraham · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Halmstads BK

WLLWD
  • 21AIKHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.85–2.36

  • 12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.42–1.76

  • 02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.80–2.83

  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.15–1.74

  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.67–2.09

Hammarby IF

WWDLW
  • 10Degerfors IFAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.34–1.95

  • 31IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.02–1.00

  • 11Örgryte ISAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 4.85–0.77

  • 23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 4.61–1.82

  • 20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–1.01

How to read the Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 18 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Hammarby IF win 72%. Expected goals are 0.82–2.38. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.82–2.38). Hammarby IF win is 72%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 62%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 72%. Home 11%, draw 16%, away 72%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 62% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Halmstads BK vs Hammarby IF?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions