Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 41%. Home 29%, draw 30%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 7 · 2026/27

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal prediction

Slight lean

Arsenal win 41%

Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Nottingham ForestvsArsenal

Slight lean

Arsenal win41%

Nottingham Forest win: 29%
Draw: 30%
Arsenal win: 41%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.23–1.50
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over78%; Under22%
2.5 goals: Over51%; Under49%
3.5 goals: Over29%; Under71%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Arsenal win 41%, from a -231 Elo gap (1507 vs 1738).
2Expected goals 1.23-1.50.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.

Match briefing

Elo: 1507
-231
1738
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Nottingham Forest
LWDDL
Avg xG 1.39-0.95
Arsenal
LWWWW
Avg xG 1.70-0.77

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.4%
2129.0%
3008.9%
4217.4%
5017.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Nottingham Forest versus Arsenal
Nottingham Forest goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	7%	7%	4%
1	6%	14%	9%	5%
2	5%	7%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 09:27 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

Fair

3.47

29% model

Listed

7.00

14% book

Draw

Fair

3.31

30% model

Listed

4.20

24% book

Arsenal win

Disagrees

Fair

2.44

41% model

Listed

1.60

62% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 hours before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Arsenal win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 1.92

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 2.04

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.85

BTTS no

Fair: 2.35
Listed: 1.89

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Nottingham Forest

Arsenal

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nottingham Forest

LWDDL

01Coventry CityHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.15–0.67
21Aston VillaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–0.82
00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.06
22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.30–1.75
01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.47

Arsenal

LWWWW

03Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.57–1.30
20SunderlandAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–1.64
21ChelseaHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 2.05–0.39
10Aston VillaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.04–0.33
30Coventry CityHome · 21 Aug 2026
xG 1.88–0.20

How to read the Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal (Premier League, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Arsenal win 41%. Expected goals are 1.23–1.50. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Arsenal holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.23–1.50). That shows up as Arsenal win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Arsenal win
Kick-off: Sun 18 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal

Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 41%. Home 29%, draw 30%, away 41%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.