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Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

Malmö FF vs BK Häcken prediction

Slight lean

Malmö FF win 53%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Malmö FFvsBK Häcken
Slight lean

Malmö FF win53%

Malmö FF win
53%
Draw
23%
BK Häcken win
25%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.76–1.13

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over78%
Under22%
2.5 goals
Over55%
Under45%
3.5 goals
Over33%
Under67%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Malmö FF win 53%, from a +43 Elo gap (1604 vs 1561).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.76-1.13.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo

1604

+43

1561

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Malmö FF

LWDWL

Avg xG 2.07-1.17

BK Häcken

WDDLW

Avg xG 2.16-1.30

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.8%
  2. 21010.1%
  3. 321Prediction9.7%
  4. 4208.6%
  5. 5016.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Malmö FF versus BK Häcken
Malmö FF goals012345
05%7%4%
110%11%6%2%
29%10%5%2%
35%6%3%
42%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Malmö FF win

Disagrees

Malmö FF win: model 53%, fair 1.90, listed 2.70 (37%)

Fair

1.90

53% model

Listed

2.70

37% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.37, listed 3.85 (26%)

Fair

4.37

23% model

Listed

3.85

26% book

BK Häcken win

BK Häcken win: model 25%, fair 4.07, listed 2.65 (37%)

Fair

4.07

25% model

Listed

2.65

37% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Malmö FF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.55 (62%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
1.55

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 2.55 (38%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
2.55

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 1.46 (64%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
1.46

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 2.62 (36%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
2.62

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Malmö FF

  1. 1 Robin Olsen · G
  2. 5 Andrej Đurić · D
  3. 17 Jens Stryger Larsen · D
  4. 25 Busanello · D
  5. 7 Otto Rosengren · M
  6. 37 Adrian Skogmar · M
  7. 40 Kenan Busuladžić · M
  8. 45 Anton Höög · M
  9. 47 Theodor Lundbergh · M
  10. 20 Erik Botheim · F
  11. 29 Sead Hakšabanović · F

BK Häcken

  1. 99 Etrit Berisha · G
  2. 5 Brice Wembangomo · D
  3. 13 Harry Hilvenius · D
  4. 21 Adam Lundqvist · D
  5. 22 Filip Helander · D
  6. 6 Abdoulaye Doumbia · M
  7. 10 Mikkel Rygaard · M
  8. 11 Julius Lindberg · M
  9. 19 David Seger · M
  10. 20 Adrian Svanback · M
  11. 9 Gustav Lindgren · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Malmö FF

LWDWL
  • 02Västerås SKAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.82–0.71

  • 41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 3.36–1.31

  • 00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 1.40–0.68

  • 10IK SiriusAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.67–1.51

  • 03Djurgårdens IFHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.09–1.65

BK Häcken

WDDLW
  • 50Kalmar FFAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 3.24–1.02

  • 11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 1.71–1.02

  • 00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.14–1.54

  • 13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.17–2.27

  • 30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–0.64

How to read the Malmö FF vs BK Häcken probabilities

Malmö FF vs BK Häcken (Allsvenskan, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Malmö FF win 53%. Expected goals are 1.76–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Malmö FF holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.76–1.13). That shows up as Malmö FF win at 53%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Malmö FF vs BK Häcken

Who is favourite for Malmö FF vs BK Häcken?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 23%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Malmö FF vs BK Häcken?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Malmö FF vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Malmö FF vs BK Häcken?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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