Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs GAIS?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 57%. Home 21%, draw 22%, away 57%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs GAIS?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Örgryte IS vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs GAIS?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

Örgryte IS vs GAIS prediction

Clear lean

GAIS win 57%

Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Örgryte ISvsGAIS

Clear lean

GAIS win57%

Örgryte IS win: 21%
Draw: 22%
GAIS win: 57%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.02–1.83
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over77%; Under23%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: GAIS win 57%, from a -155 Elo gap (1405 vs 1560).
2Expected goals 1.02-1.83.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1405
-155
1560
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Örgryte IS
LLDLD
Avg xG 1.23-2.78
GAIS
WLDWL
Avg xG 1.73-1.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

101Modal10.9%
21110.5%
312Prediction9.9%
4029.7%
5106.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus GAIS
Örgryte IS goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%
1	6%	11%	10%	6%	3%
2	3%	6%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 09:28 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Fair

4.73

21% model

Listed

6.00

16% book

Draw

Fair

4.50

22% model

Listed

4.50

22% book

GAIS win

Fair

1.76

57% model

Listed

1.58

62% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 hours before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.85
Listed: 1.74

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.18
Listed: 2.15

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 1.77

BTTS no

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 1.98

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Örgryte IS

GAIS

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS

LLDLD

12IK SiriusHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.18–1.16
14Malmö FFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.31–3.36
11Hammarby IFHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.77–4.85
01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.81–1.86
11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.09–2.67

GAIS

WLDWL

30Mjällby AIFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.34–1.20
02Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–2.27
00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–2.14
40IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.99–1.13
02Hammarby IFAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.01–3.00

How to read the Örgryte IS vs GAIS probabilities

Örgryte IS vs GAIS (Allsvenskan, 18 Oct 2026): Clear lean. GAIS win 57%. Expected goals are 1.02–1.83. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

GAIS is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.02–1.83). GAIS win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · GAIS win
Kick-off: Sun 18 Oct, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs GAIS

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs GAIS?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 57%. Home 21%, draw 22%, away 57%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs GAIS?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs GAIS?: BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.