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Premier League round 8 results

Premier League round 8 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur; Aston Villa vs Manchester City; Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 8. Ledger updated 25 Oct 2026, 13:27 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 8 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
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Premier League round 8 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
5
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur80–22–1MissChelsea win · 47%MissOverMissYesMiss
Arsenal vs Everton82–02–1MissArsenal win · 59%HitOverMissYesMiss
Coventry City vs Fulham80–11–2MissFulham win · 50%HitOverMissYesMiss
Aston Villa vs Manchester City82–11–2MissManchester City win · 51%MissOverHitYesHit
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest81–11–2MissNottingham Forest win · 46%MissOverMissYesHit

Previous: round 7All Premier League results

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 8 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 8?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 8 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 7, round 8.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Round 8 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
5 · 5
Log loss
1.0866·1.1552

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0685

RPS
0.2442·0.2769

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0327

Brier
0.6501·0.7024

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0523

Goal MAE
0.80
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.55 · 50.7614·0.7564Δ +0.00500.2840·0.281320%Model · Closing line
Under 2.55 · 50.7614·0.7564Δ +0.00500.2840·0.281320%Model · Closing line
BTTS5 · 50.7211·0.6960Δ +0.02510.2639·0.251340%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.