Slight lean
Arsenal win41%
- Forest
- 29%
- Draw
- 30%
- Arsenal
- 41%
- xG home
- 1.23
- xG away
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 51%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Premier League predictions
Match-by-match Premier League forecasts from a Dixon-Coles goals model with Elo features. Frozen baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo; every published number is stored before kick-off.
England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Official site: premierleague.com.
11 upcoming Premier League forecasts in the ledger, covering rounds 7 and 8. Looking for Premier League predictions today? See today’s fixtures · Premier League Elo table. Historical forecasts stay on this hub so every published number remains crawlable.
ArsenalAston VillaBournemouthBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionChelseaCoventry CityCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamHull CityIpswich TownLeeds UnitedLiverpool FCManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham Hotspur
Upcoming
Round 72 matches
Match page
Slight lean
Tottenham Hotspur win52%
- Hotspur
- 52%
- Draw
- 29%
- City
- 20%
- xG home
- 1.70
- xG away
- 0.99
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 54%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Round 89 matches
Slight lean
Nottingham Forest win49%
Both likely- Town
- 24%
- Draw
- 28%
- Forest
- 49%
- xG home
- 1.21
- xG away
- 1.77
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 60%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Slight lean
Manchester City win51%
- Villa
- 21%
- Draw
- 28%
- City
- 51%
- xG home
- 1.11
- xG away
- 1.79
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Clear lean
Arsenal win60%
- Arsenal
- 60%
- Draw
- 25%
- Everton
- 15%
- xG home
- 2.01
- xG away
- 0.95
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 55%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Slight lean
Fulham win51%
- City
- 22%
- Draw
- 28%
- Fulham
- 51%
- xG home
- 1.12
- xG away
- 1.78
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Slight lean
Chelsea win49%
- Chelsea
- 49%
- Draw
- 28%
- Hotspur
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.72
- xG away
- 1.12
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Balanced
Newcastle United win35%
- Palace
- 35%
- Draw
- 31%
- United
- 35%
- xG home
- 1.34
- xG away
- 1.35
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Slight lean
Brentford win39%
- City
- 32%
- Draw
- 30%
- Brentford
- 39%
- xG home
- 1.33
- xG away
- 1.49
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Balanced
Liverpool FC win37%
Both likely- FC
- 37%
- Draw
- 29%
- Albion
- 34%
- xG home
- 1.51
- xG away
- 1.45
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- BTTS
- 62%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Slight lean
Manchester United win52%
- United
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- Bournemouth
- 20%
- xG home
- 1.78
- xG away
- 1.07
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Historical predictions
Final 2–0·Bournemouth win 47%
Hit- Bournemouth
- 47%
- Draw
- 29%
- Sunderland
- 24%
- xG home
- 1.67
- xG away
- 1.17
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 5–0·Brighton & Hove Albion win 63%
Hit- Albion
- 63%
- Draw
- 23%
- Palace
- 13%
- xG home
- 2.12
- xG away
- 0.91
- Over 2.5
- 58%
- BTTS
- 55%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 1–1·Manchester United win 43%
Miss- United
- 28%
- Draw
- 29%
- United
- 43%
- xG home
- 1.28
- xG away
- 1.60
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- BTTS
- 60%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 0–1·Newcastle United win 40%
Miss- United
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- Villa
- 30%
- xG home
- 1.51
- xG away
- 1.30
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- BTTS
- 59%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 1–2·Liverpool FC win 36%
Hit- Brentford
- 33%
- Draw
- 31%
- FC
- 36%
- xG home
- 1.30
- xG away
- 1.35
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 1–0·Fulham win 46%
Hit- Fulham
- 46%
- Draw
- 29%
- City
- 25%
- xG home
- 1.65
- xG away
- 1.17
- Over 2.5
- 54%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 3–2·Manchester City win 74%
Hit- City
- 74%
- Draw
- 18%
- Town
- 8%
- xG home
- 2.63
- xG away
- 0.85
- Over 2.5
- 67%
- BTTS
- 54%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 0–2·Everton win 42%
Miss- Everton
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Chelsea
- 28%
- xG home
- 1.53
- xG away
- 1.21
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 1–1·Manchester United win 42%
Miss- Fulham
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- United
- 42%
- xG home
- 1.31
- xG away
- 1.60
- Over 2.5
- 56%
- BTTS
- 61%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 0–1·Bournemouth win 40%
Miss- Bournemouth
- 40%
- Draw
- 30%
- FC
- 30%
- xG home
- 1.49
- xG away
- 1.27
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 0–0·Leeds United win 48%
Miss- United
- 48%
- Draw
- 29%
- Palace
- 23%
- xG home
- 1.67
- xG away
- 1.11
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 57%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Final 5–3·Manchester City win 65%
Hit- City
- 65%
- Draw
- 22%
- Sunderland
- 12%
- xG home
- 2.23
- xG away
- 0.92
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- BTTS
- 55%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Premier League prediction questions
- Where can I find Premier League predictions today?
- Upcoming Premier League fixtures are listed first on this hub, with a dedicated today view at /football-predictions/today. Each match has its own URL with xG, 1X2, Over 2.5 and BTTS.
- How does Expected90 predict Premier League matches?
- Premier League forecasts use expected goals as Poisson means, a Dixon-Coles adjustment for low scores, and Elo team strength. Home/draw/away, Over 2.5 and BTTS are summed from one score grid.
- Are Premier League predictions betting tips?
- No. These are probabilities, timestamped before kick-off. Misses stay on the page. There is no odds CTA.
- Can I check yesterday’s Premier League prediction?
- Yes. Historical forecasts remain on this hub and on each match URL, with the original probabilities and the final score.