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Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win 49%

· Portman Road Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Ipswich TownvsNottingham Forest
Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win49%

Both likely
Ipswich Town win
24%
Draw
28%
Nottingham Forest win
49%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.21–1.77

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%
BTTS
60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over82%
Under18%
2.5 goals
Over57%
Under43%
3.5 goals
Over35%
Under65%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Nottingham Forest win 49%, from a -110 Elo gap (1390 vs 1500).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.21-1.77.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 60%.
  5. 5Igor Jesus listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1390

-110

1500

Premier League table
Out

Ipswich TownNone out

No listed absences

Nottingham Forest2 out

  • Igor Jesus
  • Nicolò Savona
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Ipswich Town

LWLWL

Avg xG 1.31-1.79

Nottingham Forest

LLWDD

Avg xG 1.93-1.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.0%
  2. 212Prediction9.6%
  3. 3028.0%
  4. 4007.2%
  5. 5016.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Ipswich Town versus Nottingham Forest
Ipswich Town goals012345
07%7%8%5%2%
14%13%10%6%3%
24%7%6%3%
33%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Ipswich Town win

Disagrees

Ipswich Town win: model 24%, fair 4.20, listed 3.10 (31%)

Fair

4.20

24% model

Listed

3.10

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 28%, fair 3.61, listed 3.53 (27%)

Fair

3.61

28% model

Listed

3.53

27% book

Nottingham Forest win

Nottingham Forest win: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 2.25 (42%)

Fair

2.06

49% model

Listed

2.25

42% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Ipswich Town win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.80 (54%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
1.80

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.34, listed 2.10 (46%)

Fair
2.34
Listed
2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 60%, fair 1.66, listed 1.61 (58%)

Fair
1.66
Listed
1.61

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 40%, fair 2.52, listed 2.25 (42%)

Fair
2.52
Listed
2.25

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Ipswich TownNone out

No listed absences.

Nottingham Forest2 out · 2 doubtful

  • Igor JesusOutCalf Injury
  • Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury
  • Morgan Gibbs-WhiteDoubtfulKnock Injury
  • Nikola MilenkovićDoubtfulKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Ipswich Town

  1. 28 Christian Walton · G
  2. 37 Kjell Scherpen · G
  3. 6 Issa Diop · D
  4. 24 Jacob Greaves · D
  5. 26 Dara O'Shea · D
  6. 3 Leif Davis · M
  7. 23 Saša Lukić · M
  8. 7 Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · F
  9. 10 Julio Enciso · F
  10. 19 Emersonn · F
  11. 38 Daizen Maeda · F

Nottingham Forest

  1. 26 Matz Sels · G
  2. 5 Murillo · D
  3. 23 Jair · D
  4. 31 Nikola Milenković · D
  5. 34 Ola Aina · D
  6. 3 Neco Williams · M
  7. 21 Xaver Schlager · M
  8. 10 Morgan Gibbs-White · F
  9. 11 Igor Jesus · F
  10. 14 Dan Ndoye · F
  11. 24 James McAtee · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Ipswich Town

LWLWL
  • 23Manchester CityAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.66–3.53

  • 21FulhamHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.15–1.81

  • 01EvertonAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.30–2.31

  • 32Crystal PalaceAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.67–0.62

  • 02Liverpool FCHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.75–0.69

Nottingham Forest

LLWDD
  • 13Crystal PalaceAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 3.34–2.41

  • 01Coventry CityHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.15–0.67

  • 21Aston VillaAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.92–0.82

  • 00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.92–1.06

  • 22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.30–1.75

How to read the Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 23 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Nottingham Forest win 49%. Expected goals are 1.21–1.77. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Nottingham Forest holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.21–1.77). That shows up as Nottingham Forest win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Nottingham Forest win
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 49%. Home 24%, draw 28%, away 49%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest?
BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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