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Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction

Balanced

Liverpool FC win 37%

· Anfield

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Liverpool FCvsBrighton & Hove Albion
Balanced

Liverpool FC win37%

Both likely
Liverpool FC win
37%
Draw
29%
Brighton & Hove Albion win
34%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.51–1.45

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%
BTTS
62%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over82%
Under18%
2.5 goals
Over57%
Under43%
3.5 goals
Over34%
Under66%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Liverpool FC win 37%, from a +63 Elo gap (1647 vs 1584).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.51-1.45.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 62%.
  5. 5Conor Bradley listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1647

+63

1584

Premier League table
Out

Liverpool FC3 out

  • Conor Bradley
  • Giovanni Leoni
  • Hugo Ekitiké

Brighton & Hove Albion6 out

  • Femi Azeez
  • Kaoru Mitoma
  • Mats Wieffer
  • +3 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Liverpool FC

WLWDW

Avg xG 1.19-0.88

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWWWD

Avg xG 1.91-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction13.6%
  2. 2218.6%
  3. 3128.2%
  4. 4007.5%
  5. 5226.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Liverpool FC versus Brighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool FC goals012345
07%5%5%3%
16%14%8%4%
26%9%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Liverpool FC win

Liverpool FC win: model 37%, fair 2.71, listed 2.08 (46%)

Fair

2.71

37% model

Listed

2.08

46% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.45, listed 3.91 (25%)

Fair

3.45

29% model

Listed

3.91

25% book

Brighton & Hove Albion win

Brighton & Hove Albion win: model 34%, fair 2.93, listed 3.30 (29%)

Fair

2.93

34% model

Listed

3.30

29% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.62 (60%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.31, listed 2.38 (41%)

Fair
2.31
Listed
2.38

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 62%, fair 1.62, listed 1.50 (63%)

Fair
1.62
Listed
1.50

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 38%, fair 2.62, listed 2.51 (37%)

Fair
2.62
Listed
2.51

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Liverpool FC3 out

  • Conor BradleyOutKnee Injury
  • Giovanni LeoniOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Hugo EkitikéOutAchilles Tendon Injury

Brighton & Hove Albion6 out

  • Femi AzeezOutMuscle Injury
  • Kaoru MitomaOutHamstring Injury
  • Mats WiefferOutKnee Injury
  • Stefanos TzimasOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Yankuba MintehOutLeg Injury
  • Zadok YohannaOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Liverpool FC

  1. 1 Alisson · G
  2. 4 Virgil van Dijk · D
  3. 5 Jérémy Jacquet · D
  4. 6 Miloš Kerkez · D
  5. 7 Florian Wirtz · M
  6. 8 Dominik Szoboszlai · M
  7. 10 Alexis Mac Allister · M
  8. 38 Ryan Gravenberch · M
  9. 9 Alexander Isak · F
  10. 18 Cody Gakpo · F
  11. 73 Rio Ngumoha · F

Brighton & Hove Albion

  1. 1 Bart Verbruggen · G
  2. 5 Lewis Dunk · D
  3. 21 Olivier Boscagli · D
  4. 24 Ferdi Kadıoğlu · D
  5. 44 Luka Vušković · D
  6. 8 Jack Hinshelwood · M
  7. 13 Pascal Groß · M
  8. 25 Diego Gómez · M
  9. 26 Yasin Ayari · M
  10. 29 Maxim De Cuyper · M
  11. 19 Charalampos Kostoulas · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Liverpool FC

WLWDW
  • 21BrentfordAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.64–0.88

  • 03Manchester CityHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 0.94–1.28

  • 10BournemouthAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.57–0.76

  • 00FulhamHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.13–0.71

  • 20Ipswich TownAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.69–0.75

Brighton & Hove Albion

WWWWD
  • 50Crystal PalaceHome · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 1.98–0.75

  • 20SunderlandAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.41–0.72

  • 30ArsenalHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.30–1.57

  • 50Coventry CityAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.69–1.39

  • 11Leeds UnitedHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.19–2.49

How to read the Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion probabilities

Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion (Premier League, 25 Oct 2026): Balanced. Liverpool FC win 37%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.45. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Liverpool FC and Brighton & Hove Albion are close on expected goals (1.51–1.45), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 62%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 29%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Brighton & Hove Albion?
BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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