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Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Coventry City vs Fulham prediction

Slight lean

Fulham win 51%

· Coventry Building Society Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Coventry CityvsFulham
Slight lean

Fulham win51%

Coventry City win
22%
Draw
28%
Fulham win
51%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.12–1.78

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over81%
Under19%
2.5 goals
Over56%
Under44%
3.5 goals
Over33%
Under67%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Fulham win 51%, from a -66 Elo gap (1432 vs 1498).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.12-1.78.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Aurèle Amenda listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1432

-66

1498

Premier League table
Out

Coventry City3 out

  • Aurèle Amenda
  • Haji Wright
  • Josh Eccles

FulhamNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Coventry City

WWLLL

Avg xG 1.24-1.70

Fulham

WLDDL

Avg xG 1.73-1.20

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.1%
  2. 212Prediction9.8%
  3. 3028.7%
  4. 4007.7%
  5. 5017.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Coventry City versus Fulham
Coventry City goals012345
08%8%9%5%2%
14%13%10%6%3%
23%6%5%3%
32%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Coventry City win

Disagrees

Coventry City win: model 22%, fair 4.62, listed 2.93 (33%)

Fair

4.62

22% model

Listed

2.93

33% book

Draw

Draw: model 28%, fair 3.62, listed 3.53 (27%)

Fair

3.62

28% model

Listed

3.53

27% book

Fulham win

Fulham win: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 2.35 (41%)

Fair

1.97

51% model

Listed

2.35

41% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Coventry City win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 1.73 (55%)

Fair
1.80
Listed
1.73

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 2.12 (45%)

Fair
2.25
Listed
2.12

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.72, listed 1.60 (59%)

Fair
1.72
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.40, listed 2.26 (41%)

Fair
2.40
Listed
2.26

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Coventry City3 out

  • Aurèle AmendaOutCalf Injury
  • Haji WrightOutMuscle Injury
  • Josh EcclesOutKnock Injury

Fulham0 out · 1 doubtful

  • Hugo LarssonDoubtfulGroin Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Coventry City

  1. 19 Carl Rushworth · G
  2. 2 Ethan Pinnock · D
  3. 3 Jay DaSilva · D
  4. 4 Bobby Thomas · D
  5. 24 Aurèle Amenda · D
  6. 27 Milan van Ewijk · D
  7. 5 Jack Rudoni · M
  8. 6 Matt Grimes · M
  9. 8 Caleb Yirenkyi · M
  10. 10 Ephron Mason-Clark · M
  11. 16 Frank Onyeka · M

Fulham

  1. 1 Bernd Leno · G
  2. 3 Calvin Bassey · D
  3. 21 Timothy Castagne · D
  4. 22 David Affengruber · D
  5. 33 Antonee Robinson · D
  6. 14 Oscar Bobb · M
  7. 16 Sander Berge · M
  8. 17 Alex Iwobi · M
  9. 19 Shea Charles · M
  10. 24 Josh King · M
  11. 7 Gonzalo García · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Coventry City

WWLLL
  • 41Newcastle UnitedHome · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 1.47–1.84

  • 10Nottingham ForestAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.67–1.15

  • 05Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.39–2.69

  • 01Manchester CityAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.37–2.12

  • 01Hull CityHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–0.72

Fulham

WLDDL
  • 10Hull CityHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.38–0.16

  • 12Ipswich TownAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.81–1.15

  • 11Manchester UnitedHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.62–1.60

  • 00Liverpool FCAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–1.13

  • 23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 3.14–1.97

How to read the Coventry City vs Fulham probabilities

Coventry City vs Fulham (Premier League, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Fulham win 51%. Expected goals are 1.12–1.78. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Fulham holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.12–1.78). That shows up as Fulham win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Fulham win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Coventry City vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Coventry City vs Fulham?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 51%. Home 22%, draw 28%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Coventry City vs Fulham?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Coventry City vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Coventry City vs Fulham?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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