Who is favourite for Hull City vs Brentford?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 39%. Home 32%, draw 30%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Hull City vs Brentford?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Hull City vs Brentford go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Hull City vs Brentford?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Hull City vs Brentford prediction

Slight lean

Brentford win 39%

Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon · MKM Stadium

Published 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Hull CityvsBrentford

Slight lean

Brentford win39%

Hull City win: 32%
Draw: 30%
Brentford win: 39%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.33–1.49
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over31%; Under69%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Brentford win 39%, from a -128 Elo gap (1421 vs 1548).
2Expected goals 1.33-1.49.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Charlie Hughes listed out and 10 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1421
-128
1548
Premier League table
Out: Hull City8 out
Charlie Hughes
Darko Gyabi
Eliot Matazo
+5 more
Brentford3 out
Antoni Milambo
Josh Dasilva
Kaye Furo
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Hull City
LDLDD
Avg xG 0.96-1.46
Brentford
LDWDD
Avg xG 1.26-1.73

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.2%
2128.8%
3008.3%
4217.9%
5026.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Hull City versus Brentford
Hull City goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	7%	7%	3%
1	6%	14%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Hull City win

Fair

3.17

32% model

Listed

4.40

22% book

Draw

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Brentford win

Disagrees

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

1.78

54% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Brentford win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.15

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.68
Listed: 1.68

BTTS no

Fair: 2.46
Listed: 2.12

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Hull City8 out

Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
Eliot MatazoOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
Lucas Gourna-DouathOutCalf Injury
Matt TargettOutAnkle Injury
Mohamed Ali ChoOutMuscle Injury
Nobel MendyOutGroin Injury

Brentford3 out

Antoni MilamboOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Josh DasilvaOutHamstring Injury
Kaye FuroOutKnee Surgery

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Hull City

Brentford

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Hull City

LDLDD

01FulhamAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.16–1.38
22EvertonHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.33–1.68
12Newcastle UnitedAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.24–1.43
22ChelseaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.49–0.89
00Aston VillaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.57–1.93

Brentford

LDWDD

12Liverpool FCHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 0.88–1.64
22Aston VillaAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.06–2.28
30ChelseaHome · 18 Sept 2026
xG 2.65–0.83
22BournemouthAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.50–2.18
11SunderlandHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.21–1.71

How to read the Hull City vs Brentford probabilities

Hull City vs Brentford (Premier League, 25 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Brentford win 39%. Expected goals are 1.33–1.49. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hull City and Brentford are close on expected goals (1.33–1.49), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Brentford win
Kick-off: Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Hull City vs Brentford

Who is favourite for Hull City vs Brentford?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Brentford win at 39%. Home 32%, draw 30%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Hull City vs Brentford?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Hull City vs Brentford go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Hull City vs Brentford?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.