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Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United prediction

Balanced

Newcastle United win 35%

· Selhurst Park

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Crystal PalacevsNewcastle United
Balanced

Newcastle United win35%

Crystal Palace win
35%
Draw
31%
Newcastle United win
35%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.34–1.35

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over77%
Under23%
2.5 goals
Over50%
Under50%
3.5 goals
Over28%
Under72%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Newcastle United win 35%, from a -28 Elo gap (1504 vs 1532).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.34-1.35.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Chadi Riad listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1504

-28

1532

Premier League table
Out

Crystal Palace1 out

  • Chadi Riad

Newcastle United3 out

  • Ewen Jaouen
  • Jacob Ramsey
  • Tino Livramento
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Crystal Palace

LWDLW

Avg xG 1.30-2.30

Newcastle United

LLWLD

Avg xG 1.16-1.51

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.7%
  2. 2009.2%
  3. 3128.3%
  4. 4218.3%
  5. 5016.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Crystal Palace versus Newcastle United
Crystal Palace goals012345
09%7%6%3%
17%15%8%4%
26%8%6%3%
33%4%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Crystal Palace win

Crystal Palace win: model 35%, fair 2.90, listed 2.89 (33%)

Fair

2.90

35% model

Listed

2.89

33% book

Draw

Draw: model 31%, fair 3.25, listed 3.55 (27%)

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

3.55

27% book

Newcastle United win

Newcastle United win: model 35%, fair 2.88, listed 2.40 (40%)

Fair

2.88

35% model

Listed

2.40

40% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 1.98, listed 1.62 (59%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.02, listed 2.31 (41%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
2.31

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.51 (62%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
1.51

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.34, listed 2.45 (38%)

Fair
2.34
Listed
2.45

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Crystal Palace1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
  • Ben ChilwellDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Newcastle United3 out

  • Ewen JaouenOutHamstring Injury
  • Jacob RamseyOutThigh Injury
  • Tino LivramentoOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Crystal Palace

  1. 1 Dean Henderson · G
  2. 6 Jaydee Canvot · D
  3. 26 Chris Richards · D
  4. 3 Tyrick Mitchell · M
  5. 20 Adam Wharton · M
  6. 23 Quinten Timber · M
  7. 25 Anan Khalaili · M
  8. 27 Daniel Muñoz · M
  9. 10 Yéremy Pino · F
  10. 18 Daichi Kamada · F
  11. 22 Jørgen Strand Larsen · F

Newcastle United

  1. 21 Lukáš Horníček · G
  2. 3 Lewis Hall · D
  3. 4 Sven Botman · D
  4. 12 Malick Thiaw · D
  5. 37 Amar Dedić · D
  6. 67 Lewis Miley · D
  7. 11 Harvey Barnes · M
  8. 23 Jacob Murphy · M
  9. 28 Joe Willock · M
  10. 9 Yoane Wissa · F
  11. 10 William Osula · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Crystal Palace

LWDLW
  • 05Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 0.75–1.98

  • 31Nottingham ForestHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 2.41–3.34

  • 00Leeds UnitedAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.74–1.36

  • 23Ipswich TownHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.62–1.67

  • 32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.97–3.14

Newcastle United

LLWLD
  • 01Aston VillaHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 0.99–1.57

  • 14Coventry CityAway · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 1.84–1.47

  • 21Hull CityHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.43–1.24

  • 14Leeds UnitedAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 0.85–1.91

  • 22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–1.37

How to read the Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United probabilities

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United (Premier League, 25 Oct 2026): Balanced. Newcastle United win 35%. Expected goals are 1.34–1.35. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Crystal Palace and Newcastle United are close on expected goals (1.34–1.35), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:06 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Newcastle United win
Kick-off
Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Who is favourite for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 31%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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