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Premier League · Round 8 · 2026/27

Arsenal vs Everton prediction

Clear lean

Arsenal win 60%

· Emirates Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

ArsenalvsEverton
Clear lean

Arsenal win60%

Arsenal win
60%
Draw
25%
Everton win
15%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
2.01–0.95

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over81%
Under19%
2.5 goals
Over57%
Under43%
3.5 goals
Over34%
Under66%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Arsenal win 60%, from a +221 Elo gap (1740 vs 1519).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.01-0.95.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Christos Tzolis listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1740

+221

1519

Premier League table
Out

Arsenal2 out

  • Christos Tzolis
  • Piero Hincapié

EvertonNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Arsenal

WLWWW

Avg xG 1.79-0.86

Everton

LDWDD

Avg xG 1.32-1.09

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.9%
  2. 22010.5%
  3. 321Prediction9.9%
  4. 4108.5%
  5. 5007.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Arsenal versus Everton
Arsenal goals012345
07%3%2%
18%12%5%
210%10%5%
37%7%3%
44%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Arsenal win

Arsenal win: model 60%, fair 1.67, listed 1.40 (68%)

Fair

1.67

60% model

Listed

1.40

68% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.02, listed 4.60 (21%)

Fair

4.02

25% model

Listed

4.60

21% book

Everton win

Everton win: model 15%, fair 6.61, listed 8.70 (11%)

Fair

6.61

15% model

Listed

8.70

11% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.81 (53%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.81

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.31, listed 2.02 (47%)

Fair
2.31
Listed
2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 2.02 (46%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
2.02

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 1.74 (54%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
1.74

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Arsenal2 out · 1 doubtful

  • Christos TzolisOutHamstring Injury
  • Piero HincapiéOutAnkle Injury
  • Martín ZubimendiDoubtfulKnock Injury

EvertonNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Arsenal

  1. 1 David Raya · G
  2. 4 Ben White · D
  3. 6 Gabriel Magalhães · D
  4. 15 Ezri Konsa · D
  5. 33 Riccardo Calafiori · D
  6. 49 Myles Lewis-Skelly · D
  7. 7 Bukayo Saka · M
  8. 8 Martin Ødegaard · M
  9. 17 Christos Tzolis · M
  10. 41 Declan Rice · M
  11. 29 Kai Havertz · F

Everton

  1. 1 Jordan Pickford · G
  2. 2 Ainsley Maitland-Niles · D
  3. 4 Jarrad Branthwaite · D
  4. 6 James Tarkowski · D
  5. 16 Vitaliy Mykolenko · D
  6. 8 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · M
  7. 34 Merlin Röhl · M
  8. 37 James Garner · M
  9. 45 Harrison Armstrong · M
  10. 11 Thierno Barry · F
  11. 19 Tyrique George · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Arsenal

WLWWW
  • 21Leeds UnitedHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 2.33–0.62

  • 03Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.57–1.30

  • 20SunderlandAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.97–1.64

  • 21ChelseaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 2.05–0.39

  • 10Aston VillaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.04–0.33

Everton

LDWDD
  • 02ChelseaHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 0.43–1.47

  • 22Hull CityAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.68–1.33

  • 10Ipswich TownHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.31–1.30

  • 00Tottenham HotspurAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.17–0.64

  • 22Manchester UnitedHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.01–0.72

How to read the Arsenal vs Everton probabilities

Arsenal vs Everton (Premier League, 24 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Arsenal win 60%. Expected goals are 2.01–0.95. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Arsenal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.01–0.95). Arsenal win is 60%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Arsenal win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Arsenal vs Everton

Who is favourite for Arsenal vs Everton?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 60%. Home 60%, draw 25%, away 15%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Arsenal vs Everton?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Arsenal vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Arsenal vs Everton?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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