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Allsvenskan round 26 results

Allsvenskan round 26 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF; IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken; AIK vs IF Elfsborg. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Round 26. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

Round 26 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll18202122242526

Allsvenskan round 26 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
5
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF261–12–1MissIFK Göteborg win · 40%MissOverMissYesHit
IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken260–00–2MissBK Häcken win · 82%MissOverMissNoHit
Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF260–31–2MissMalmö FF win · 56%HitOverHitYesMiss
Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK260–31–2MissVästerås SK win · 47%HitOverHitYesMiss
AIK vs IF Elfsborg262–22–1MissAIK win · 38%MissOverHitYesHit

Previous: round 25All Allsvenskan results

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan round 26 questions

How did Expected90 do in Allsvenskan round 26?
5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Allsvenskan round 26 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Allsvenskan rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 18, round 20, round 21, round 22, round 24, round 25, round 26.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Round 26 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
5 · 5
Log loss
1.2433·1.1699

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0734

RPS
0.1852·0.1752

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0100

Brier
0.7715·0.7171

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0544

Goal MAE
0.95
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.55 · 50.6436·0.7609Δ -0.11730.2254·0.282760%Model · Closing line
Under 2.55 · 50.6436·0.7609Δ -0.11730.2254·0.282760%Model · Closing line
BTTS5 · 50.6577·0.7411Δ -0.08340.2329·0.273660%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.