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La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Valencia vs Villarreal prediction

Slight lean

Villarreal win 46%

· Mestalla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

ValenciavsVillarreal
Slight lean

Villarreal win46%

Valencia win
27%
Draw
27%
Villarreal win
46%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.07–1.48

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over73%
Under27%
2.5 goals
Over47%
Under53%
3.5 goals
Over25%
Under75%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Villarreal win 46%, from a -103 Elo gap (1481 vs 1584).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.07-1.48.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Diego López listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1481

-103

1584

La Liga table
Out

Valencia2 out

  • Diego López
  • Sergi Canós

Villarreal1 out

  • Tajon Buchanan
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Valencia

DDLWL

Avg xG 1.10-1.30

Villarreal

DLWWL

Avg xG 2.44-1.27

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 20111.2%
  3. 312Prediction9.1%
  4. 4028.6%
  5. 5008.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Valencia versus Villarreal
Valencia goals012345
08%11%9%4%
18%13%9%4%
24%7%5%2%
32%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Valencia win

Valencia win: model 27%, fair 3.71, listed 3.25 (30%)

Fair

3.71

27% model

Listed

3.25

30% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.72, listed 3.69 (26%)

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

3.69

26% book

Villarreal win

Villarreal win: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 2.17 (44%)

Fair

2.17

46% model

Listed

2.17

44% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.14, listed 1.73 (55%)

Fair
2.14
Listed
1.73

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 2.13 (45%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
2.13

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 1.60 (58%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
1.60

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 2.24 (42%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
2.24

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Valencia2 out

  • Diego LópezOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Sergi CanósOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Villarreal1 out

  • Tajon BuchananOutHamstring Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Valencia

  1. 1 Stole Dimitrievski · G
  2. 5 César Tárrega · D
  3. 12 Justin De Haas · D
  4. 14 José Luis Gayà · D
  5. 24 Pablo Maffeo · D
  6. 2 Guido Rodríguez · M
  7. 7 Arnaut Danjuma · M
  8. 8 Javier Guerra · M
  9. 18 Pepelu · M
  10. 23 Filip Ugrinić · M
  11. 9 Hugo Duro · F

Villarreal

  1. 25 Péter Gulácsi · G
  2. 3 Alexander Freeman · D
  3. 6 Pau Navarro · D
  4. 8 Juan Foyth · D
  5. 12 Renato Veiga · D
  6. 23 Sergi Cardona · D
  7. 14 Santi Comesaña · M
  8. 18 Pape Gueye · M
  9. 19 Nicolas Pépé · M
  10. 10 Alberto Moleiro · F
  11. 22 Ayoze Pérez · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Valencia

DDLWL
  • 00Athletic ClubHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.41–0.59

  • 22Real Racing ClubAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 1.80–1.28

  • 23Real SociedadHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.55–2.65

  • 10Deportivo AlavésAway · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 0.65–1.05

  • 01SevillaAway · 11 Sept 2026

    xG 0.10–0.93

Villarreal

DLWWL
  • 00ElcheHome · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 2.38–0.30

  • 01Real MadridAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.59–1.43

  • 31Levante UDHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 4.02–0.46

  • 31Málaga CFAway · 17 Sept 2026

    xG 3.33–0.63

  • 12Real BetisHome · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.89–3.52

How to read the Valencia vs Villarreal probabilities

Valencia vs Villarreal (La Liga, 24 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Villarreal win 46%. Expected goals are 1.07–1.48. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Villarreal holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.07–1.48). That shows up as Villarreal win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Villarreal win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Valencia vs Villarreal

Who is favourite for Valencia vs Villarreal?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Villarreal win at 46%. Home 27%, draw 27%, away 46%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Valencia vs Villarreal?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Valencia vs Villarreal go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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