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La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF prediction

Clear lean

Deportivo Alavés win 58%

· Estadio de Mendizorroza

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Deportivo AlavésvsMálaga CF
Clear lean

Deportivo Alavés win58%

Deportivo Alavés win
58%
Draw
25%
Málaga CF win
18%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–0 at 13%

Expected goals
1.71–0.83

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
47%
BTTS
47%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over72%
Under28%
2.5 goals
Over47%
Under53%
3.5 goals
Over25%
Under75%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Deportivo Alavés win 58%, from a +112 Elo gap (1472 vs 1360).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.71-0.83.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%.
  4. 4Facundo Garcés listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1472

+112

1360

La Liga table
Out

Deportivo Alavés2 out

  • Facundo Garcés
  • Mikel Rodriguez

Málaga CF5 out

  • Aarón Ochoa
  • Diego Murillo
  • Jens-Lys Cajuste
  • +2 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Deportivo Alavés

DLDLL

Avg xG 1.11-1.45

Málaga CF

DLLDD

Avg xG 0.76-1.58

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Modal13.1%
  2. 21111.6%
  3. 32011.5%
  4. 421Prediction9.6%
  5. 5008.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Deportivo Alavés versus Málaga CF
Deportivo Alavés goals012345
08%6%3%
113%12%5%
211%10%4%
37%5%2%
43%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Deportivo Alavés win

Disagrees

Deportivo Alavés win: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.85 (51%)

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.85

51% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.08, listed 3.50 (27%)

Fair

4.08

25% model

Listed

3.50

27% book

Málaga CF win

Málaga CF win: model 18%, fair 5.65, listed 4.40 (22%)

Fair

5.65

18% model

Listed

4.40

22% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Deportivo Alavés win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.15, listed 2.10 (45%)

Fair
2.15
Listed
2.10

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.87, listed 1.74 (55%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.74

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 47%, fair 2.15, listed 1.93 (48%)

Fair
2.15
Listed
1.93

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 53%, fair 1.87, listed 1.81 (52%)

Fair
1.87
Listed
1.81

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Deportivo Alavés2 out

  • Facundo GarcésOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Mikel RodriguezOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Málaga CF5 out

  • Aarón OchoaOutMeniscus Injury
  • Diego MurilloOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Jens-Lys CajusteOutMuscle Injury
  • Juan CruzOutHamstring Injury
  • Julen LobeteOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Deportivo Alavés

  1. 1 Antonio Sivera · G
  2. 2 Nicolás Valentini · D
  3. 14 Nahuel Tenaglia · D
  4. 16 Ville Koski · D
  5. 17 Jonny Otto · D
  6. 21 Abderrahman Rebbach · D
  7. 7 Ángel Pérez · M
  8. 8 Antonio Blanco · M
  9. 19 Pablo Ibáñez · M
  10. 11 Toni Martínez · F
  11. 15 Lucas Boyé · F

Málaga CF

  1. 1 Alfonso Herrero · G
  2. 3 Carlos Puga · D
  3. 4 Einar Galilea · D
  4. 15 Ángel Recio · D
  5. 31 Rafa Garrido · D
  6. 8 Carlos Dotor · M
  7. 10 David Larrubia · M
  8. 11 Joaquín Muñoz · M
  9. 22 Dani Lorenzo · M
  10. 23 Izan Merino · M
  11. 9 Chupete · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Deportivo Alavés

DLDLL
  • 00Celta VigoAway · 18 Oct 2026
  • 12Atlético MadridHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 1.30–2.05

  • 00Athletic ClubAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.05–1.65

  • 01ValenciaHome · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 1.05–0.65

  • 12Real Racing ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.04–1.46

Málaga CF

DLLDD
  • 11EspanyolHome · 9 Oct 2026

    xG 0.69–1.08

  • 01GetafeAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 0.52–0.90

  • 13VillarrealHome · 17 Sept 2026

    xG 0.63–3.33

  • 11Celta VigoAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–1.78

  • 00Levante UDHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.46–0.81

How to read the Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF probabilities

Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF (La Liga, 23 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Deportivo Alavés win 58%. Expected goals are 1.71–0.83. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Deportivo Alavés is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.71–0.83). Deportivo Alavés win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–0 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 47%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 47%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Deportivo Alavés win
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF

Who is favourite for Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Deportivo Alavés win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 25%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–0 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 47% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Deportivo Alavés vs Málaga CF?
BTTS is 47%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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