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La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche prediction

Clear lean

Rayo Vallecano win 56%

· Estadio de Vallecas

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Rayo VallecanovsElche
Clear lean

Rayo Vallecano win56%

Rayo Vallecano win
56%
Draw
24%
Elche win
20%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.75–0.96

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over76%
Under24%
2.5 goals
Over51%
Under49%
3.5 goals
Over29%
Under71%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Rayo Vallecano win 56%, from a +76 Elo gap (1509 vs 1433).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.75-0.96.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Andrei Rațiu listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1509

+76

1433

La Liga table
Out

Rayo Vallecano3 out

  • Andrei Rațiu
  • Augusto Batalla
  • Luiz Felipe

Elche1 out

  • Yago Santiago
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Rayo Vallecano

DDWLW

Avg xG 1.11-1.04

Elche

DDWLD

Avg xG 0.86-1.99

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.6%
  2. 21011.3%
  3. 32010.2%
  4. 421Prediction9.8%
  5. 5007.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Rayo Vallecano versus Elche
Rayo Vallecano goals012345
07%6%3%
111%12%5%
210%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Rayo Vallecano win

Rayo Vallecano win: model 56%, fair 1.80, listed 1.76 (54%)

Fair

1.80

56% model

Listed

1.76

54% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.12, listed 3.79 (25%)

Fair

4.12

24% model

Listed

3.79

25% book

Elche win

Elche win: model 20%, fair 4.97, listed 4.50 (21%)

Fair

4.97

20% model

Listed

4.50

21% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 1.83 (52%)

Fair
1.97
Listed
1.83

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.03, listed 2.00 (48%)

Fair
2.03
Listed
2.00

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
2.05
Listed
2.00

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Rayo Vallecano3 out

  • Andrei RațiuOutMuscle Injury
  • Augusto BatallaOutBroken Leg
  • Luiz FelipeOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Elche1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Yago SantiagoOutKnee Injury
  • Marc AguadoDoubtfulMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Rayo Vallecano

  1. 25 Emil Audero · G
  2. 2 Andrei Rațiu · D
  3. 17 Adrià Pedrosa · D
  4. 24 Florian Lejeune · D
  5. 4 Pedro Díaz · M
  6. 6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss · M
  7. 8 Unai López · M
  8. 18 Álvaro García · M
  9. 23 Óscar Valentín · M
  10. 10 Sergio Camello · F
  11. 19 Jorge de Frutos · F

Elche

  1. 1 Matías Dituro · G
  2. 2 Buba Sangaré · D
  3. 3 Roy Revivo · D
  4. 11 Germán Valera · D
  5. 23 Víctor Chust · D
  6. 47 Javi Morcillo · D
  7. 5 Federico Redondo · M
  8. 8 Marc Aguado · M
  9. 12 Gonzalo Villar · M
  10. 14 Fernando Niño · F
  11. 20 Tete Morente · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Rayo Vallecano

DDWLW
  • 00Athletic ClubHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.02–0.06

  • 11OsasunaAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 1.19–0.55

  • 21EspanyolHome · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 1.52–1.49

  • 14Real MadridAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.21–2.62

  • 32Real Racing ClubHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.61–0.48

Elche

DDWLD
  • 00VillarrealAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 0.30–2.38

  • 00Celta VigoHome · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 0.78–0.47

  • 31EspanyolAway · 18 Sept 2026

    xG 1.61–1.05

  • 23Real MadridHome · 15 Sept 2026

    xG 0.78–3.61

  • 11Athletic ClubAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.84–2.42

How to read the Rayo Vallecano vs Elche probabilities

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche (La Liga, 24 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Rayo Vallecano win 56%. Expected goals are 1.75–0.96. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Rayo Vallecano is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.75–0.96). Rayo Vallecano win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Rayo Vallecano win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Who is favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Rayo Vallecano win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 24%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Elche go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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