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La Liga · Round 10 · 2026/27

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña prediction

Strong favourite

Atlético Madrid win 74%

· Riyadh Air Metropolitano

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Atlético MadridvsDeportivo de A Coruña
Strong favourite

Atlético Madrid win74%

Open game
Atlético Madrid win
74%
Draw
16%
Deportivo de A Coruña win
10%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 2–0 at 11%

Expected goals
2.49–0.82

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
64%
BTTS
51%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over84%
Under16%
2.5 goals
Over64%
Under36%
3.5 goals
Over42%
Under58%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Atlético Madrid win 74%, from a +251 Elo gap (1657 vs 1406).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.49-0.82.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 11%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 64%.
  5. 5Johnny Cardoso listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1657

+251

1406

La Liga table
Out

Atlético Madrid1 out

  • Johnny Cardoso

Deportivo de A Coruña4 out

  • Bright Ede
  • Marc Casadó
  • Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
  • +1 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Atlético Madrid

WWWWW

Avg xG 2.39-0.58

Deportivo de A Coruña

DLDLD

Avg xG 1.31-0.95

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal11.3%
  2. 2309.4%
  3. 321Prediction9.3%
  4. 4108.9%
  5. 5117.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Atlético Madrid versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Atlético Madrid goals012345
04%3%
19%8%3%
211%9%4%
39%8%3%
46%5%
53%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Atlético Madrid win

Atlético Madrid win: model 74%, fair 1.36, listed 1.25 (77%)

Fair

1.36

74% model

Listed

1.25

77% book

Draw

Draw: model 16%, fair 6.09, listed 6.30 (15%)

Fair

6.09

16% model

Listed

6.30

15% book

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Deportivo de A Coruña win: model 10%, fair 9.99, listed 12.50 (8%)

Fair

9.99

10% model

Listed

12.50

8% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 64%, fair 1.56, listed 1.51 (64%)

Fair
1.56
Listed
1.51

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 36%, fair 2.79, listed 2.63 (36%)

Fair
2.79
Listed
2.63

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 51%, fair 1.94, listed 2.04 (46%)

Fair
1.94
Listed
2.04

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 1.71 (54%)

Fair
2.06
Listed
1.71

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Atlético Madrid1 out

  • Johnny CardosoOutIllness

Deportivo de A Coruña4 out · 1 doubtful

  • Bright EdeOutHamstring Injury
  • Marc CasadóOutMuscle Injury
  • Pierre-Emerick AubameyangOutMeniscus Injury
  • Zakaria EddahchouriOutBroken Wrist
  • Yeremay HernándezDoubtfulKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Atlético Madrid

  1. 13 Jan Oblak · G
  2. 17 Dávid Hancko · D
  3. 18 Marc Pubill · D
  4. 21 Cristian Romero · D
  5. 22 Alejandro Grimaldo · D
  6. 7 Kang-in Lee · M
  7. 10 Alex Baena · M
  8. 14 Marcos Llorente · M
  9. 20 Giuliano Simeone · M
  10. 23 Morten Hjulmand · M
  11. 11 Ademola Lookman · F

Deportivo de A Coruña

  1. 13 Leo Román · G
  2. 4 Lucas Noubi · D
  3. 12 Giacomo Quagliata · D
  4. 20 José María Giménez · D
  5. 23 Ximo Navarro · D
  6. 14 Riki Rodríguez · M
  7. 16 Lorenzo Amatucci · M
  8. 19 Luismi Cruz · M
  9. 21 Mario Soriano · M
  10. 7 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · F
  11. 32 Bil Nsongo · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Atlético Madrid

WWWWW
  • 10EspanyolAway · 17 Oct 2026

    xG 1.47–0.51

  • 21Deportivo AlavésAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 2.05–1.30

  • 21Real MadridHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.38–0.32

  • 40OsasunaHome · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 3.99–0.48

  • 30Real SociedadAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 2.05–0.27

Deportivo de A Coruña

DLDLD
  • 11Levante UDHome · 16 Oct 2026

    xG 1.11–0.83

  • 23Real SociedadAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 2.13–1.44

  • 11Real BetisHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.29–1.05

  • 01SevillaHome · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 0.14–0.73

  • 11GetafeAway · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 0.88–0.70

How to read the Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 24 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. Atlético Madrid win 74%. Expected goals are 2.49–0.82. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Atlético Madrid is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.49–0.82). Atlético Madrid win is 74%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 64%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 51%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Strong favourite · Atlético Madrid win
Kick-off
Sat 24 Oct, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Atlético Madrid win at 74%. Home 74%, draw 16%, away 10%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 64% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
BTTS is 51%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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