Who is favourite for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will AIK vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in AIK vs IF Elfsborg?

BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

AIK vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Balanced

AIK win 38%

Tue 27 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Published 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

AIKvsIF Elfsborg

Balanced

AIK win38%

Both likely

AIK win: 38%
Draw: 24%
IF Elfsborg win: 37%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.56–1.54
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 62%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over82%; Under18%
2.5 goals: Over60%; Under40%
3.5 goals: Over38%; Under62%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: AIK win 38%, from a -12 Elo gap (1563 vs 1574).
2Expected goals 1.56-1.54.
3Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Both teams to score at 62%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1563
-12
1574
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: AIK
DLLDL
Avg xG 2.54-2.34
IF Elfsborg
DWWWL
Avg xG 2.04-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.0%
221Prediction8.5%
3128.3%
4106.8%
5016.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for AIK versus IF Elfsborg
AIK goals	0	1	2	3
0	5%	7%	5%	3%
1	7%	11%	8%	4%
2	5%	8%	7%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

AIK

IF Elfsborg

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AIK

DLLDL

22IFK GöteborgHome · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.50–1.50
56IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.45–2.85
12Halmstads BKAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 2.36–1.85
11Mjällby AIFHome · 16 Sept 2026
xG 3.18–1.84
14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 3.23–3.67

IF Elfsborg

DWWWL

22IK SiriusAway · 18 Oct 2026
40Halmstads BKHome · 12 Oct 2026
xG 3.04–0.64
21Djurgårdens IFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.68–1.40
10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.98
12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–1.51

How to read the AIK vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

AIK vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 27 Oct 2026): Balanced. AIK win 38%. Expected goals are 1.56–1.54. Prediction 2–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

AIK and IF Elfsborg are close on expected goals (1.56–1.54), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 62%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Oct 2026, 20:08 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 1031
Verdict: Balanced · AIK win
Kick-off: Tue 27 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about AIK vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is AIK win at 38%. Home 38%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AIK vs IF Elfsborg?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will AIK vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AIK vs IF Elfsborg?: BTTS is 62%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.