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Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK prediction

Slight lean

Västerås SK win 47%

· Stora Valla

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Degerfors IFvsVästerås SK
Slight lean

Västerås SK win47%

Degerfors IF win
30%
Draw
23%
Västerås SK win
47%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.31–1.71

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
58%
BTTS
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over80%
Under20%
2.5 goals
Over58%
Under42%
3.5 goals
Over36%
Under64%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Västerås SK win 47%, from a -67 Elo gap (1418 vs 1485).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.31-1.71.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Juhani Pikkarainen listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1418

-67

1485

Allsvenskan table
Out

Degerfors IF2 out

  • Juhani Pikkarainen
  • Kazper Karlsson

Västerås SKNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Degerfors IF

LDLLW

Avg xG 1.70-2.18

Västerås SK

WLWWL

Avg xG 1.56-1.99

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.6%
  2. 212Prediction9.4%
  3. 3018.7%
  4. 4027.2%
  5. 5217.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Degerfors IF versus Västerås SK
Degerfors IF goals012345
05%9%7%4%
17%11%9%5%2%
24%7%6%3%
33%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 30%, fair 3.38, listed 2.75 (35%)

Fair

3.38

30% model

Listed

2.75

35% book

Draw

Draw: model 23%, fair 4.33, listed 3.45 (28%)

Fair

4.33

23% model

Listed

3.45

28% book

Västerås SK win

Västerås SK win: model 47%, fair 2.11, listed 2.60 (37%)

Fair

2.11

47% model

Listed

2.60

37% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 58%, fair 1.72, listed 1.81 (51%)

Fair
1.72
Listed
1.81

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 42%, fair 2.39, listed 1.87 (49%)

Fair
2.39
Listed
1.87

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 59%, fair 1.68, listed 1.64 (56%)

Fair
1.68
Listed
1.64

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 41%, fair 2.47, listed 2.08 (44%)

Fair
2.47
Listed
2.08

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Degerfors IF2 out

  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Kazper KarlssonOutUnknown

Västerås SKNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Degerfors IF

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 6 Daniel Sundgren · D
  5. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  6. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  7. 10 Noel Milleskog · M
  8. 22 Nahom Girmai · M
  9. 23 Robin Dzabic · M
  10. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F
  11. 17 Arman Taranis · F

Västerås SK

  1. 34 Elis Jäger · G
  2. 2 Herman Magnusson · D
  3. 4 Philip Bonde · D
  4. 15 Jonathan Karlsson · D
  5. 24 Jack Tagesson · D
  6. 8 Mamadou Diagne · M
  7. 11 Simon Gefvert · M
  8. 19 Jens Magnusson · M
  9. 30 Mattias Hellisdal · M
  10. 16 Bonaventure Lendambi · F
  11. 17 Taonsa Axel · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Degerfors IF

LDLLW
  • 12Kalmar FFHome · 19 Oct 2026

    xG 1.26–3.55

  • 11Mjällby AIFAway · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.75–2.31

  • 01Hammarby IFHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.95–2.34

  • 02IK SiriusAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 1.72–1.91

  • 20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.83–0.80

Västerås SK

WLWWL
  • 10Mjällby AIFHome · 18 Oct 2026
  • 01IFK GöteborgAway · 9 Oct 2026

    xG 0.89–0.92

  • 20Malmö FFHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–2.82

  • 41AIKAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 3.67–3.23

  • 01IK SiriusHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–0.99

How to read the Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK probabilities

Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK (Allsvenskan, 28 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Västerås SK win 47%. Expected goals are 1.31–1.71. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Västerås SK holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.31–1.71). That shows up as Västerås SK win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Västerås SK win
Kick-off
Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK

Who is favourite for Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Västerås SK win at 47%. Home 30%, draw 23%, away 47%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Degerfors IF vs Västerås SK?
BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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