Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 82%. Home 5%, draw 12%, away 82%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?

0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?

BTTS is 37%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken prediction

Strong favourite

BK Häcken win 82%

Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon · Grimsta IP

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IF BrommapojkarnavsBK Häcken

Strong favourite

BK Häcken win82%

IF Brommapojkarna win: 5%
Draw: 12%
BK Häcken win: 82%

Prediction: 0–2
Expected goals: 0.51–2.59
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 37%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over81%; Under19%
2.5 goals: Over60%; Under40%
3.5 goals: Over38%; Under62%

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: BK Häcken win 82%, from a -110 Elo gap (1465 vs 1575).
2Expected goals 0.51-2.59.
3Prediction 0–2 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Ben Engdahl listed out.

Match briefing

Elo: 1465
-110
1575
Allsvenskan table
Out: IF BrommapojkarnaNone out
No listed absences
BK Häcken1 out
Ben Engdahl
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: IF Brommapojkarna
LWLLW
Avg xG 1.41-1.83
BK Häcken
WWWDD
Avg xG 2.48-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Prediction15.1%
20313.0%
30111.8%
4048.4%
5127.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for IF Brommapojkarna versus BK Häcken
IF Brommapojkarna goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	4%	12%	15%	13%	8%	4%
1	2%	6%	8%	7%	4%	2%
2
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 20:49 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IF Brommapojkarna win

Fair

18.48

5% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Draw

Fair

8.06

12% model

Listed

4.00

24% book

BK Häcken win

Disagrees

Fair

1.22

82% model

Listed

1.95

50% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed BK Häcken win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.67
Listed: 1.48

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.49
Listed: 2.43

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.72
Listed: 1.46

BTTS no

Fair: 1.58
Listed: 2.45

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IF BrommapojkarnaNone out

No listed absences.

BK Häcken1 out

Ben EngdahlOutUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IF Brommapojkarna

BK Häcken

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IF Brommapojkarna

LWLLW

02Djurgårdens IFHome · 16 Oct 2026
xG 0.92–1.30
65AIKAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.85–2.45
01IFK GöteborgHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 0.79–2.38
13Hammarby IFAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.00–2.02
21IF ElfsborgHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.51–0.98

BK Häcken

WWWDD

10Malmö FFAway · 18 Oct 2026
xG 1.51–2.04
30Örgryte ISHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 3.82–0.31
50Kalmar FFAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 3.24–1.02
11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.71–1.02
00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.14–1.54

How to read the IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken probabilities

IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken (Allsvenskan, 28 Oct 2026): Strong favourite. BK Häcken win 82%. Expected goals are 0.51–2.59. Prediction 0–2 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

BK Häcken is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.51–2.59). BK Häcken win is 82%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 0–2 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 37%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · BK Häcken win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken

Who is favourite for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 82%. Home 5%, draw 12%, away 82%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?: 0–2 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IF Brommapojkarna vs BK Häcken?: BTTS is 37%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.