Skip to main content
E90

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF prediction

Clear lean

Malmö FF win 56%

· Örjans Vall

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Halmstads BKvsMalmö FF
Clear lean

Malmö FF win56%

Halmstads BK win
22%
Draw
21%
Malmö FF win
56%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 10%

Expected goals
1.13–1.94

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
59%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over81%
Under19%
2.5 goals
Over59%
Under41%
3.5 goals
Over37%
Under63%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Malmö FF win 56%, from a -181 Elo gap (1416 vs 1597).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.13-1.94.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%.
  4. 4Isaac Assibu listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1416

-181

1597

Allsvenskan table
Out

Halmstads BKNone out

No listed absences

Malmö FF4 out

  • Isaac Assibu
  • Kenan Busuladžić
  • Noah Åstrand John
  • +1 more
XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Halmstads BK

LLWLL

Avg xG 1.06-2.39

Malmö FF

LWLWD

Avg xG 2.44-1.37

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal9.9%
  2. 212Prediction9.9%
  3. 3019.3%
  4. 4028.7%
  5. 5136.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Halmstads BK versus Malmö FF
Halmstads BK goals012345
04%9%9%6%3%
16%10%10%6%3%
23%6%6%4%
32%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Halmstads BK win

Halmstads BK win: model 22%, fair 4.52, listed 3.95 (24%)

Fair

4.52

22% model

Listed

3.95

24% book

Draw

Draw: model 21%, fair 4.68, listed 3.85 (25%)

Fair

4.68

21% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Malmö FF win

Malmö FF win: model 56%, fair 1.77, listed 1.91 (51%)

Fair

1.77

56% model

Listed

1.91

51% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 59%, fair 1.69, listed 1.61 (57%)

Fair
1.69
Listed
1.61

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 41%, fair 2.46, listed 2.16 (43%)

Fair
2.46
Listed
2.16

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.55 (59%)

Fair
1.73
Listed
1.55

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.37, listed 2.23 (41%)

Fair
2.37
Listed
2.23

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Halmstads BKNone out

No listed absences.

Malmö FF4 out · 1 doubtful

  • Isaac AssibuOutUnknown
  • Kenan BusuladžićOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Noah Åstrand JohnOutUnknown
  • Oscar SjostrandOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Jovan MilosavljevićDoubtfulUnknown

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Halmstads BK

  1. 1 Tim Rönning · G
  2. 3 Gabriel Wallentin · D
  3. 5 Pascal Gregor · D
  4. 17 Andre Boman · D
  5. 6 Joel Allansson · M
  6. 8 Niilo Mäenpää · M
  7. 14 Hussein Carneil · M
  8. 24 Rami Kaib · M
  9. 27 Rocco Ascone · M
  10. 28 Tom Trybull · M
  11. 11 Ludvig Arvidsson · F

Malmö FF

  1. 1 Robin Olsen · G
  2. 2 Stian Gregersen · D
  3. 5 Andrej Đurić · D
  4. 17 Jens Stryger Larsen · D
  5. 25 Busanello · D
  6. 44 Malte Palsson · D
  7. 7 Otto Rosengren · M
  8. 37 Adrian Skogmar · M
  9. 45 Anton Höög · M
  10. 29 Sead Hakšabanović · F
  11. 32 Daníel Tristan Guðjohnsen · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Halmstads BK

LLWLL
  • 01Hammarby IFHome · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 0.61–1.95

  • 04IF ElfsborgAway · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 0.64–3.04

  • 21AIKHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.85–2.36

  • 12IFK GöteborgAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.42–1.76

  • 02Degerfors IFAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.80–2.83

Malmö FF

LWLWD
  • 01BK HäckenHome · 18 Oct 2026

    xG 2.04–1.51

  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 12 Oct 2026

    xG 2.59–2.62

  • 02Västerås SKAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.82–0.71

  • 41Örgryte ISHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 3.36–1.31

  • 00AIKHome · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 1.40–0.68

How to read the Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF probabilities

Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF (Allsvenskan, 28 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Malmö FF win 56%. Expected goals are 1.13–1.94. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Malmö FF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.13–1.94). Malmö FF win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Malmö FF win
Kick-off
Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF

Who is favourite for Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Malmö FF win at 56%. Home 22%, draw 21%, away 56%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Halmstads BK vs Malmö FF?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Expected90 Weekly

A free Friday email with three data-driven match analyses. The forecasts above stay public.

We only add you after you confirm the address. Forecasts on this site stay public either way.

How the Friday email works

Related predictions

All Allsvenskan predictions