Who is favourite for IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 25%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 26 · 2026/27

IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF prediction

Balanced

IFK Göteborg win 40%

Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon · Gamla Ullevi

Published 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

IFK GöteborgvsDjurgårdens IF

Balanced

IFK Göteborg win40%

IFK Göteborg win: 40%
Draw: 25%
Djurgårdens IF win: 35%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.32
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over76%; Under24%
2.5 goals: Over52%; Under48%
3.5 goals: Over30%; Under70%

Why this forecast

1Balanced: IFK Göteborg win 40%, from a -83 Elo gap (1554 vs 1636).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.32.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1554
-83
1636
Allsvenskan table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: IFK Göteborg
DWWWW
Avg xG 1.70-1.10
Djurgårdens IF
WWLWW
Avg xG 1.44-1.40

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.8%
2109.5%
3018.8%
421Prediction8.6%
5128.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for IFK Göteborg versus Djurgårdens IF
IFK Göteborg goals	0	1	2	3
0	6%	9%	6%	2%
1	9%	12%	8%	4%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 21 Oct 2026, 19:14 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IFK Göteborg win

Fair

2.51

40% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Draw

Fair

4.02

25% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Djurgårdens IF win

Disagrees

Fair

2.83

35% model

Listed

1.87

52% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 7 days before kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Djurgårdens IF win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.47

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.48

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.81
Listed: 1.45

BTTS no

Fair: 2.24
Listed: 2.45

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

IFK Göteborg

Djurgårdens IF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IFK Göteborg

DWWWW

22AIKAway · 17 Oct 2026
xG 1.50–1.50
10Västerås SKHome · 9 Oct 2026
xG 0.92–0.89
10IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 2.38–0.79
21Halmstads BKHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–1.42
41Mjällby AIFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.94–0.92

Djurgårdens IF

WWLWW

20IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Oct 2026
xG 1.30–0.92
10Hammarby IFAway · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.75–1.01
12IF ElfsborgHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.40–1.68
20GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 2.27–1.76
10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–1.65

How to read the IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF probabilities

IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF (Allsvenskan, 28 Oct 2026): Balanced. IFK Göteborg win 40%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.32. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IFK Göteborg and Djurgårdens IF are close on expected goals (1.42–1.32), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 21 Oct 2026, 19:16 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · IFK Göteborg win
Kick-off: Wed 28 Oct, 18:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF

Who is favourite for IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 25%, away 35%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IFK Göteborg vs Djurgårdens IF?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.