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Liga Portugal · Round 9 · 2026/27

Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo prediction

Clear lean

Vitória SC win 61%

· Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Vitória SCvsCS Marítimo
Clear lean

Vitória SC win61%

Vitória SC win
61%
Draw
26%
CS Marítimo win
14%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.89–0.82

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals
Over77%
Under23%
2.5 goals
Over51%
Under49%
3.5 goals
Over29%
Under71%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Vitória SC win 61%, from a +87 Elo gap (1493 vs 1406).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.89-0.82.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Alioune Ndoye suspended.

Match briefing

Elo

1493

+87

1406

Liga Portugal table
Out

Vitória SC1 out

  • Alioune NdoyeSuspended

CS MarítimoNone out

No listed absences

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Vitória SC

LDLDL

Avg xG 1.31-1.18

CS Marítimo

LDLLL

Avg xG 0.53-1.60

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.4%
  2. 22011.8%
  3. 31010.5%
  4. 421Prediction9.8%
  5. 5008.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Vitória SC versus CS Marítimo
Vitória SC goals012345
09%3%2%
110%12%4%
212%10%4%
37%6%3%
44%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Vitória SC win

Vitória SC win: model 61%, fair 1.65, listed 1.54 (62%)

Fair

1.65

61% model

Listed

1.54

62% book

Draw

Draw: model 26%, fair 3.88, listed 4.15 (23%)

Fair

3.88

26% model

Listed

4.15

23% book

CS Marítimo win

CS Marítimo win: model 14%, fair 7.34, listed 6.05 (16%)

Fair

7.34

14% model

Listed

6.05

16% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
1.95

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.90 (51%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.90

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.94 (48%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.94

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 1.79 (52%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
1.79

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Vitória SC1 out

  • Alioune NdoyeSuspendedred card suspension

CS MarítimoNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Vitória SC

  1. 48 Oliwier Zych · G
  2. 4 Óscar Rivas · D
  3. 13 João Mendes · D
  4. 23 Tony Strata · D
  5. 28 Thiago Balieiro · D
  6. 8 Gonçalo Nogueira · M
  7. 11 Gustavo Silva · M
  8. 20 Samu · M
  9. 44 Lohann Doucet · M
  10. 7 Oumar Camara · F
  11. 24 Alioune Ndoye · F

CS Marítimo

  1. 13 Alfonso Pastor · G
  2. 2 Igor Julião · D
  3. 4 Rafael Fernandes · D
  4. 23 Paulo Henrique · D
  5. 44 Romain Correia · D
  6. 6 Rodrigo Andrade · M
  7. 10 Martín Tejón · M
  8. 14 Raphael Guzzo · M
  9. 18 Vladan Danilović · M
  10. 11 Simo Bouzaidi · F
  11. 17 Adrián Butzke · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Vitória SC

LDLDL
  • 02BenficaAway · 11 Oct 2026

    xG 0.43–2.42

  • 11MoreirenseHome · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 1.07–0.52

  • 12Académico Viseu FCAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 2.10–1.83

  • 00Casa PiaHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 2.48–0.21

  • 01Sporting BragaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.47–0.93

CS Marítimo

LDLLL
  • 12FC PortoHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 0.19–1.93

  • 11Gil VicenteAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.86–1.20

  • 13MoreirenseAway · 14 Sept 2026

    xG 0.76–2.00

  • 03BenficaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.12–1.31

  • 12FC AroucaAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–1.55

How to read the Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo probabilities

Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo (Liga Portugal, 23 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Vitória SC win 61%. Expected goals are 1.89–0.82. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Vitória SC is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.89–0.82). Vitória SC win is 61%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
18 Oct 2026, 09:29 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Vitória SC win
Kick-off
Fri 23 Oct, 20:45 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo

Who is favourite for Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Vitória SC win at 61%. Home 61%, draw 26%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Vitória SC vs CS Marítimo?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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