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Liga Portugal · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction

Slight lean

Sporting Braga win 51%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Postponed

Postponed — forecast frozen at ; new date .

Open the rescheduled Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente forecast

Match forecast

Sporting BragavsGil Vicente
Slight lean

Sporting Braga win51%

Sporting Braga win
51%
Draw
29%
Gil Vicente win
21%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.64–0.99

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Sporting Braga win 51%, from a +161 Elo gap (1649 vs 1489).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.64-0.99.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo

1649

+161

1489

Liga Portugal table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Sporting Braga

DDDDL

Avg xG 0.89-1.55

Gil Vicente

WLLDW

Avg xG 1.13-1.15

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.7%
  2. 2109.8%
  3. 3209.7%
  4. 421Prediction9.6%
  5. 5009.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Sporting Braga versus Gil Vicente
Sporting Braga goals012345
09%5%4%
110%14%6%
210%10%5%
35%5%3%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Sporting Braga

  1. 1 Lukáš Horníček · G
  2. 5 Leonardo Lelo · D
  3. 6 Vítor Carvalho · D
  4. 14 Gustaf Lagerbielke · D
  5. 17 Gabriel Moscardo · D
  6. 2 Victor Gómez · M
  7. 8 João Moutinho · M
  8. 34 Demir Ege Tıknaz · M
  9. 9 Fran Navarro · F
  10. 10 Pau Víctor · F
  11. 21 Ricardo Horta · F

Gil Vicente

  1. 99 Dani Figueira · G
  2. 2 Zé Carlos · D
  3. 3 Ghislain Konan · D
  4. 4 Marvin Elimbi Gilbert · D
  5. 39 Jonathan Buatu · D
  6. 5 Facundo Cáseres · M
  7. 10 Luís Esteves · M
  8. 10 Santi García · M
  9. 77 Murilo · M
  10. 27 Agustín Moreira · F
  11. 89 Gustavo Varela · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sporting Braga

DDDDL
  • 22MoreirenseAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.32–0.22

  • 22CF Estrela AmadoraHome · 16 May 2026

    xG 2.38–0.71

  • 22BenficaAway · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.20–2.91

  • 11Estoril PraiaHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 0.40–1.06

  • 12Santa ClaraAway · 26 Apr 2026

    xG 0.17–2.84

Gil Vicente

WLLDW
  • 10Rio AveHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 1.66–0.19

  • 03Sporting CPAway · 16 May 2026

    xG 0.64–1.61

  • 13FC AroucaHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 0.77–1.32

  • 00Rio AveAway · 3 May 2026

    xG 0.70–1.40

  • 21Casa PiaHome · 27 Apr 2026

    xG 1.88–1.21

How to read the Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente probabilities

Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente (Liga Portugal, 16 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Sporting Braga win 51%. Expected goals are 1.64–0.99. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Sporting Braga holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.64–0.99). That shows up as Sporting Braga win at 51%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
v1.1.0-p1-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Sporting Braga win
Kick-off
Sun 16 Aug, 20:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente

Who is favourite for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sporting Braga win at 51%. Home 51%, draw 29%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sporting Braga vs Gil Vicente?
BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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